Hierarchical models for the spatio-temporal dynamics in*

描述（由申请人提供）：我们将为农场动物的两种直接传播感染：禽流感（Al）和口蹄疫（FMD）的时间和空间传播开发一个基于证据的分层范式模型框架家族。在建模疾病系统方面，我们将创建地方（在牛群/羊群中）、县、州和国家的人工智能和口蹄疫模型。层次策略很重要，因为简单的模型可以更快地完成，更容易地参数化，因此比更复杂的模型更有可能可用。它们的行为可以更容易地推广到其他系统，并可以在战略（如果不是战术）意义上通知响应措施。更复杂的模型是必不可少的战术工具，但需要更长的时间才能完成，而且它们的行为可能不那么容易推广到其他感染。我们的建议是在提供有关一系列潜在威胁的有用战略信息的需要与我们可以为有关预防、反应和恢复的战术决策提供信息的要求之间的妥协。除其他事项外，我们将研究每个模型的适当粒度级别（规模）。在美国，很少有地区的农场位置被映射到大多数现有类型的模型在州或国家尺度上的时空传播所需的详细程度。我们将设计基于其他空间分辨率（例如基于邮政编码、县或国家电网系统的数据）的模型（元人口/补丁/重力模型）。我们将使用详细的空间随机模型来测试和校准这些近似值，这些模型是使用宾夕法尼亚州农场位置的详细和广泛的GIS数据库开发的，然后将其扩展到美国的其他地区。我们将利用这些模型设计和完善预防、应对和恢复战略。禽流感和口蹄疫是生物/农业恐怖主义的潜在病原体，它们本身就是毁灭性的动物流行病，对人类的福祉（社会、经济和心理）产生巨大的不利影响。这里提出的模型将有助于规划预防、控制和应对战略。特别是在禽流感的情况下，控制鸟类感染是控制人类感染的先发制人的策略。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We shall develop an evidence-based hierarchical family of paradigmatic model frameworks for the temporal and spatial spread of two directly transmitted infections of farm animals: Avian Influenza (Al) and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). With respect to modeling disease systems we shall create both local (within herd/flock), county, state and national models of Al and FMD. The hierarchical strategy is important because the simpler models can be completed more quickly and parameterized more readily and are therefore more likely to be available for use than the more complicated models. Their behavior can more easily be generalized to other systems and can inform response measures in a strategic (if not tactical) sense. The more complicated models are essential tactical instruments but will take longer to complete and their behavior may not be so easily generalized to other infections. Our proposal represents a compromise between the need to provide useful strategic information about a range of potential threats - and the requirement that we can inform tactical decisions about prevention, response and recovery. Among other things, we shall investigate the appropriate level of granularity (scale) for each of these models. There are few regions in the USA where farms locations are mapped to level of detail required for most existing types of models for spatial and temporal spread at state or national scales. We shall devise models (metapopulation/ Patch/ Gravity models) based on other spatial resolutions (e.g. data based on zip codes, counties, or a national grid system). We shall test and calibrate these approximations using detailed spatial stochastic models developed using detailed and extensive GIS data bases on farm location in Pennsylvania and then extend their use to other regions in the USA. We shall use the models to devise and refine strategies for prevention, response and recovery. Avian Influenza and Foot and Mouth Disease are potential agents of bio/agroterrorism in addition to being devastating animal epidemic diseases in their own right which have dramatic adverse effects on the well-being (social, economic and psychological) of human populations. The models proposed here will assist in planning strategies for prevention, control and response. In the case of Avian Influenza especially, controlling the infection in birds is a pre-emptive strategy for control in people.