The application of geostatistical analysis to the prediction and modelling of the decay dynamics of masonry materials

对砖石材料性能的准确预测对于建筑石材保护和未来的建筑策略至关重要。一个长期建立的研究机构提供了对触发石块腐烂的因素的更多了解，并使人们意识到衰变动力学的不可预测性。正是这种石材腐烂过程的不可预测性，可能会在规划保护和未来的石材建筑战略时带来重大问题。贝尔法斯特女王大学风化研究小组(WRG)之前通过EPSRC项目资助的研究集中在建筑石材的表面改性和砂岩腐烂的反馈机制上。本研究旨在通过二维空间分析和三维地质统计模型对概念模型进行定量检验。通过风化模拟在一系列阶段记录的数据，将根据已有的风化研究的经验设计，用于研究触发因素，如孔隙度、渗透率、矿物学和使石头永久腐烂的机制。风化模拟将被用来调查盐面浓度、盐分渗透和深层积累的影响，监测和量化变量之间的关系，最终预测和模拟石材腐烂的动力学。岩石风化领域尚未在空间预测和模拟方面充分利用地质统计学领域的优势。有鉴于此，拟议的研究项目旨在为工作组内部开发的砂岩快速后退概念模型和已有的风化研究提供数量基础和预测能力。将使用地质统计学技术，结合地质和岩石风化解释，促进对岩石腐烂动力学的预测和建模。

Accurate prediction of the behaviour of masonry materials is crucial for building stone conservation and future building strategies. A long established body of research has provided increased understanding of the factors that trigger stone decay and an awareness of the unpredictability of decay dynamics. It is precisely this unpredictability of stone decay processes that can present significant problems when planning conservation and future stone building strategies. Previous research by the Weathering Research Group (WRG) at Queen's University Belfast, funded through EPSRC projects has centered on surface modification of building stones and feedback mechanisms in the decay of sandstones. This has provided a conceptual model of building stone decay This research aims to quantitatively test the conceptual model through 2D spatial analysis and 3D geostatistical modelling. Data recorded at a series of stages through weathering simulations, designed with the experience of established weathering studies, will be used to investigate trigger factors such as porosity, permeability, mineralogy and the mechanisms that perpetuate stone decay. Weathering simulations will be used to investigate the effect of salt surface concentration, salt penetration and accumulation at depth, to monitor and quantify relationships between variables, to ultimately predict and model the dynamics of stone decay. The field of rock weathering has yet to take full advantage of the field of geostatistics in terms of spatial prediction and simulation. In the light of this the proposed research project is aimed at providing a quantitative basis and predictive potency for the conceptual model of rapid sandstone retreat developed within the WRG and from established weathering studies. Geostatistical techniques will be used, in combination with geological and rock weathering interpretation, to facilitate the prediction and modelling of the dynamics of stone decay.