Impacts of Future Environmental Change on Climate- and Air Pollution-Mediated Human Health

臭氧形成于大气层最低10- 15公里处，被称为对流层，是一种有害的空气污染物，已知会增加人类呼吸道疾病的发病率。事实上，欧洲最近2003年的热浪表明，人口易受臭氧暴露和极端温度的影响。然而，研究和政策往往侧重于臭氧和温度对健康的影响。未来的气候变化将通过其化学生产和运输的变化来改变臭氧，而臭氧本身也会对未来的气候产生反馈作用。气候变化还将增加极端高温的发生率。此外，发展中国家的快速工业化趋势可能会导致未来臭氧本底水平的增加。因此，了解对流层臭氧和热浪事件在未来可能如何变化，特别是它们对人类健康的相互影响，对于关注减轻气候和空气质量对人类健康影响的决策者来说极为重要。该提案汇集了环境和健康学科的科学家，为联合王国开展创新研究，以定量评估气候变化和产生臭氧的气体排放对人类健康的未来影响。我们将使用最先进的高分辨率化学-气候耦合模型，并开发复杂的确定-响应关系统计模型，以调查与温度和臭氧有关的未来健康影响。特别是，将针对各种易受影响的人群，调查臭氧破坏率-死亡率关系对夏季极端温度的敏感性，例如2003年8月的热浪。然后，将针对未来的排放和气候情景，对臭氧浓度和极端温度的未来联合分布进行估计，并对英国各城市与臭氧相关的人口健康负担和空气质量风险进行评估。这项工作将提高我们对当今和未来气候和空气污染介导的健康负担变化的理解。它还将使决策者了解今后是否有必要修订与臭氧空气质量标准有关的现行政策。

Ozone formed in the lowest 10-15km of the atmosphere, which is called the troposphere, is a hazardous air pollutant, known to increase the incidence of human respiratory diseases. Indeed, the recent heat wave of 2003 in Europe has demonstrated population vulnerability to ozone exposure and temperature extremes. However, research and policy has tended to focus on health impacts of ozone and temperature independently. Future changes in climate will modify ozone through changes in its chemical production and transport, whilst ozone itself feedbacks on future climate. Climate change will also increase the incidence of high temperature extremes. In addition, rapid industrialisation trends in the developing world are likely to lead to increased background levels of ozone in the future. Understanding how tropospheric ozone and heat wave episodes may change in the future, and, in particular, their interactive effects on human health, is therefore an extremely important for policy makers concerned with mitigation of the impacts of climate and air quality on human health. This proposal brings together scientists in environmental and health disciplines to perform innovative research towards a quantitative assessment of future impacts for human health of changes in climate and emissions of ozone producing gases, for the UK. We will use a state-of-the art high resolution coupled chemistry-climate model and develop sophisticated statistical models of exposure-response relationships to investigate future health impacts related to temperature and ozone. In particular, the sensitivity of ozone exposure-mortality relationship to summertime extreme temperatures such as those experienced in the August 2003 heat wave will be investigated for various susceptible population groups. Future joint distributions of ozone concentrations and temperature extremes will then be estimated for a future emission and climate scenario, and corresponding ozone-related population health burdens and air quality exceedences across UK cities evaluated. This work will improve our understanding of present-day and future changes in health burdens as mediated by climate and air pollution. It will also provide insight for policy makers as to whether a revision of current policy related to ozone air quality standards is warranted in the future.