Statistical Methods for Network Epidemiology

描述（由申请人提供）：社会网络分析在HIV/STI传播动态和差异的研究中越来越重要。为了使这种方法充分发挥其潜力，理论和方法必须以经验为基础。这需要一个全面的分析策略，从一个可行的抽样网络计划开始，并使用统计框架来利用样本信息来理解人口水平的网络结构和动态。在这个项目中，我们的团队寻求建立一个创新的研究议程，该议程已经开发了建立网络流行病学原则方法所需的统计理论、方法和程序。我们试图扩展当前的方法，以支持动态网络的全面建模。我们的具体目标是：1。发展网络动力学建模的统计理论和方法a.完善和扩展当前的ERGM方法来建模伙伴关系动力学。b.扩展人口管理机制，以应付不断变化的人口规模和组成。c.创建专门用于流行病学应用的新型网络可视化工具。2. 将新方法集成到stat net软件中进行网络分析和仿真a.为实现新方法开发健壮的代码b.开发全面的帮助功能、手册和教程c.通过在CRAN上发布代码和利用基于互联网的工具确保公众访问。3. 为不同领域的研究人员开发培训资源。开展为期5天的网络理论、研究设计、分析、仿真和可视化研讨会。b.开展为期两天的使用统计网进行网络分析的培训讲习班。c.开展为期一天的跨学科外展培训讲习班。我们的项目团队由一个跨学科的团队组成，他们具有长期的合作经验，在将网络方法应用于科技创新研究和预防方面拥有深厚的专业知识，在能力建设方面拥有丰富的经验，并致力于开发可公开访问的软件。我们的目标是推进网络分析科学，为流行病学和公共卫生研究提供创新的研究工具，并降低获取这些新工具的障碍。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Social network analysis has become increasingly central to the study of HIV/STI transmission dynamics and disparities. For this approach to reach its full potential, the theory and methodology must be empirically grounded. This requires a comprehensive analytic strategy that starts with a feasible plan for sampling networks, and uses a statistical framework to leverage the sample information for understanding of population level network structure and dynamics. In this project, our team seeks to build on an innovative research agenda that has developed the statistical theory, methods and programs needed to establish a principled approach to network epidemiology. We seek to extend the current methodology to support comprehensive modeling for dynamic networks. Our specific aims are to: 1. develop the statistical theory and methodology for modeling network dynamics a. Refine and extend the current ERGM approach to modeling partnership dynamics. b. Develop extensions of ERGM to handle changing population size and composition. c. Create new network visualization tools designed specifically for epidemiological applications. 2. Integrate the new methods into the stat net software for network analysis and simulation a. Develop robust code for implementing the new methods b. Develop comprehensive help functions, manuals, and tutorials c. Ensure public access by publishing the code on CRAN and exploiting internet-based tools. 3. Develop training resources for researchers from different field's a. Develop a 5 day workshop in network theory, study design, analysis, simulation and visualization. b. Develop a 2 day training workshop on using stat net for network analysis. c. Develop 1 day training workshops for interdisciplinary outreach. Our project team comprises an interdisciplinary group of individuals with a long track record of working together, deep expertise in the application of network methods to STI research and prevention, experience in capacity building, and a commitment to the development of publicly accessible software. Our goal is to advance the science of network analysis, provide innovative research tools for research in epidemiology and public health, and lower the barriers to accessing these new tools. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Social network theory and methods are increasingly important in the study of HIV transmission, and for understanding the large persistent disparities in HIV prevalence both globally and in the United States. This project seeks to extend the capabilities of current methods for empirical network research through a combination of theoretical development, computer package implementation, and training workshops.