Improving adolescent and adult mortality data in developing countries

描述(由申请者提供)：每年，联邦机构都投入大量资源，以防止全球范围内的成人过早死亡。不幸的是，这种干预措施在许多目标国家对死亡率的影响仍然不清楚，因为很少有发展中国家拥有完整的生命登记系统来准确监测成人死亡率。取而代之的是，成人死亡率通常是根据在基于家庭的调查中收集的回顾数据来估计的，方法是询问受访者母系兄弟姐妹的存活情况。这些兄弟姐妹的生存历史(SSH)收集起来成本不高，但可能会受到很大偏差的影响，包括样本选择、回忆和采访者行为偏差。因此，对发展中国家成人死亡率水平的估计经常受到质疑。已经提出了复杂的统计调整技术来纠正样本选择偏差，但影响追溯死亡率数据的回答错误(即忘记兄弟姐妹)被认为是不可避免的。在这个项目中，我们将测试一种新的调查工具是否有助于提高在调查期间收集的兄弟姐妹存活率数据的质量。这个工具--兄弟姐妹增强型生命日历(SELC)--是基于回忆线索和生命日历的。这些都是简单的工具，在其他调查研究领域得到了广泛和成功的应用。然而，它们从未被用来改进发展中国家成人死亡率数据的检索。我们将对新的SELC进行随机对照试验，以确定与目前使用的标准仪器相比，这种新仪器是否能改善死亡率数据。我们将通过将每个手臂的死亡率报告与从人口监测获得的黄金标准进行比较来评估这一改善。我们预计塞内加尔三个农村人口的近400名答复者将参加这一试验。如果成功，拟议的SELC将构成一种新的方法来获得追溯死亡率数据，这些数据可以在更大范围内进行测试，并可能纳入全国成人死亡率调查(例如，国土安全部)。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Every year, large amounts of resources are invested by federal institutions in preventing premature deaths during adulthood worldwide. Unfortunately, the mortality impact of such interventions in a large number of target countries remains unclear because very few developing countries have complete vital registration systems to monitor adult mortality accurately. Instead, adult mortality rates are commonly estimated from retrospective data collected during household-based surveys, by asking respondents about the survival of their maternal siblings. These siblings' survival histories (SSH) are inexpensive to collect but are potentially affected by large biases, including sample selection, recall and interviewer behavior biases. As a result, estimates of the level of adult mortality in developing countries are frequently contested. Sophisticated statistical adjustment techniques have been proposed to correct for sample selection biases, but respondent errors (i.e., forgetting of siblings) affecting retrospective mortality data are considered inevitable. In this project, we will test whether a new survey instrument helps improve the quality of data on siblings' survival collected during surveys. This instrument - the siblings enhanced life calendar (SELC) - is based on recall cues and life calendars. These are simple tools that have been widely and successfully used in other areas of survey research. They have however never been used to improve the recall of adult mortality data in developing countries. We will conduct a randomized controlled trial of the new SELC, which will determine whether this new instrument improves mortality data relative to standard instruments currently in use. We will evaluate this improvement by comparing reports of mortality in each arm to a gold standard obtained from demographic surveillance. We expect that close to 400 respondents in three rural populations of Senegal will participate in this trial. If successful, the proposed SELC will constitute a new approach to eliciting retrospective mortality data that can be tested on a larger scale and possibly incorporated in national surveys of adult mortality (e.g., DHS).