International Alcohol Policy Model

项目摘要/摘要 酒精消费对国家和社会健康和社会造成的日益沉重的负担 在国际一级为提高人们对有效的酒精管制政策的认识和兴趣作出了贡献。在……里面 在美国，每年约有8万人死于饮酒。 仅医疗保健成本就估计为256亿美元，其中过度饮酒的全部社会成本超过 2200亿美元。在全球范围内，饮酒是健康状况不佳的第三大风险因素，也是 占2004年全球所有死亡人数的4%。在15岁至29岁的年轻人中，十分之九的人死亡 是由酒精相关的原因造成的。然而，相对缺乏有根据的和全面的分析 工具往往妨碍国家和国际政策机构考虑各种费用和 不同政策行动的后果。 在这个5年的项目中，我们建议建立一个集成的决策支持平台，可以用于 对替代酒精政策的健康、社会和经济影响进行内部和跨领域评估 国家司法管辖区。本项目的具体目标是：(1)开发、测试和验证 动态微观模拟建模平台，捕捉酒精使用的个人和社会动态 美国和其他六个相关的中高收入国家；(2)利用该平台 与当前饮酒模式有关的健康、社会和经济后果；以及(3)评估 三种酒精控制政策(定价政策、血液酒精浓度水平、 和治疗)，以减少与酒精滥用有关的社会危害。我们的模型将跟踪个人的 每杯酒的饮酒量，并记录主要疾病和健康结果，健康服务 利用率和成本，以及对美国和其他六个国家/地区的生产率影响，从而使 模型来考虑政策和社会结构之间的重要相互作用。重要的是，一种新的估计 提出了严格量化参数不确定性对结果影响的方法。这 改进模型估计将能够更有效地评估预防和预防的影响。 治疗策略，并有可能影响社会政策建模领域。将成为的国家 该平台包括：加拿大、智利、芬兰、墨西哥、俄罗斯联邦、联合王国和 美国。我们的国际可比平台将使美国决策者和研究人员能够 对美国来说，评估其他地方实施的酒精政策的影响：包括更高的酒精税 和更多负担得起的治疗。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The growing burden of alcohol consumption on health and society at both the national and the international level have contributed to the raising awareness and interest in effective alcohol control policy. In the United States (U.S.), there are approximately 80,000 deaths each year attributed to alcohol use. Healthcare costs alone are estimated at $25.6 billion, with the full societal cost of excessive drinking exceeding $220 billion. At the global level, alcohol use is the third leading risk factor for poor health and was the cause of 4% of all deaths worldwide in 2004. Among young people between the ages of 15 and 29, nine in ten deaths are due to alcohol-related causes. However, the relative scarcity of well-grounded and comprehensive analytic tools often prevents national and international policy bodies from considering the full range of costs and consequences of different policy actions. In this 5 year project, we propose to build an integrated decision-support platform that can be used to conduct evaluations of the health, social and economic impacts of alternative alcohol policies within and across national jurisdictions. The specific aims of this project are to do the following: (1) Develop, test and validate a dynamic microsimulation modeling platform, capturing both individual and social dynamics of alcohol use for the U.S. and a selection of six other relevant high- and middle-income countries; (2) Use the platform to project the health, social and economic consequences associated with current alcohol-use patterns; and (3) Assess the outcomes and costs of three alcohol control policies (pricing policies, blood alcohol concentration levels, and treatment) at reducing the social harms associated with alcohol misuse. Our model will track individuals' alcohol consumption on a per drink basis and capture key diseases and health outcomes, health service utilization and costs, and productivity impacts across the U.S. and six other countries, thereby enabling the model to consider important interactions between policy and social structures. Importantly, a novel estimation process is proposed that will rigorously quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on results. This improvement in model estimation will enable more effective evaluation of the impacts of prevention and treatment strategies and has the potential to influence the social-policy modeling field. Countries to be included in the platform are: Canada, Chile, Finland, Mexico, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our internationally comparable platform will enable U.S. policy makers and researchers to evaluate, for the U.S., the impact of alcohol policies implemented elsewhere: including higher alcohol taxes and more affordable treatment.