Demographic Responses to Natural Resource Changes

项目概要 该项目将调查环境变化和自然资源相关变化是如何产生的， 经济影响人类移徙模式。了解人类如何适应多种环境中的变化 互联系统对于维持健康的社区至关重要。自然环境、经济和人类 系统在美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区交叉，创造了一个独特的背景下，学者可以调查广泛的 关于人类适应环境和随后的经济变化的问题。基于不同的观点， 资产形式对劳动力和企业流动性有不同的影响，项目的总体目标是研究如何 环境和相关的经济变化影响到沿海国家人口一级的移徙模式， 墨西哥湾地区和美国其他地区。 拟议的工作将推进植根于移民系统理论框架的分析模型。一个系统 方法使学者和决策者能够考虑背景和起源之间的关系， 目的地，直接对比以个人为中心的观点，忽视了复杂和交叉的结构 在其中，个人的选择被决定并采取行动。此外，灾害影响案例研究方法 经常将人口规模视为常数，尽管净移民导致了长期的人口趋势， 自然增长。我们的研究将为沿海地区的环境变化和事件提供可推广的知识， 县通过其经济影响促进了区域内外与移民相关的人口变化 以及对自然和资本资产的损害。该项目将整合多个数据集并开发统计模型， 调查移民对墨西哥湾沿岸各县人口变化的贡献， 自然资源经济和移民流从和到沿海县和其他美国县，并测试索赔 关于特定环境变化的影响（例如，石油泄漏、飓风、捕鱼暂停或减少 种群）以及对人口移徙的相关经济影响。 该项目将促进对自然环境、 经济和人口系统，以及对受影响者的健康和福祉的相关影响 社区及其居民。移徙直接影响当地人口的规模和组成， 对当地医疗保健和公共卫生系统需求的重大影响： 它对目的地保健需求的影响;恢复性移徙及其对保健服务需求的贡献 受灾害影响的目的地;以及对生活在持续性 由于灾害引起的经济收缩而加剧的向外移民。除了在学术刊物上发表文章， 该小组将向规划人员、卫生政策制定者和其他决策者以及公众提供结果 通过网络研讨会，扩展编程，新闻稿和功能。该小组还将使相关的 科学和社区研究人员及公众可免费使用的综合数据库。 1

PROJECT SU1MMARY This project will investigate how environmental changes and associated changes in natural resource-based economies impact human migration patterns. Knowledge of how human populations adapt to changes within multiple interconnected systems is critical to maintaining healthy communities. Natural environmental, economic, and human systems intersect in the US Gulf Coast region to create a unique context within which scholars can investigate broad questions about human adaptation to environmental and subsequent economic change. Based on the idea that different forms of assets have different implications for labor and firm mobility, the overarching project goal is to investigate how environmental and associated economic changes impact population-level migration patterns in coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico region and the rest of the United States. The proposed work will advance analytical models rooted in a migration systems theory framework. A systems approach enables scholars and decision-makers to consider the contexts and relationships between origins and destinations, a direct contrast to individual-centered perspectives that neglect the complex and intersecting structures within which individual choices are determined and acted upon. Additionally, case study approaches to disaster impacts often treat population size as a constant, despite long-term demographic trends resulting from net migration and natural growth. Our study will provide generalizable knowledge of how environmental changes and events in coastal counties contribute to migration-related population change within and beyond a region through their economic impacts and damage to natural and capital assets. The project will integrate multiple datasets and develop statistical models to investigate the contribution of migration to population change in Gulf Coast counties, model the relationship between natural resource economies and migration flows from and to coastal counties and other US counties, and test claims about the impact of specific environmental changes (e.g., oil spills, hurricanes, fishing moratoriums or diminished stocks) and associated economic impacts on population-level migration. The project will advance the scientific understanding of the interconnectivity between natural environmental, economic, and population systems, and the associated implications for the health and wellbeing of impacted communities and their inhabitants. Migration directly influences local population size and composition, which has significant implications for demands on local healthcare and public health systems: disaster-induced out-migration and its impact on healthcare demand at destination; recovery migration and its contribution to healthcare service needs in disaster-affected destinations; and implications for healthcare provisions for populations living in places with persistent out-migration exacerbated by disaster-induced economic contractions. In addition to publishing in scholarly outlets, the team will make results available and accessible to planners, health policy-makers, and other decision-makers and publics through webinars, extension programming, and press releases and features. The team will also make the associated integrated database freely available to scientific and community researchers and the public. 1