Stability and Change of Amish Populations in the 21st Century

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议研究的目标是描述和分析北美阿米什人人口稳定和变化的模式。自1900年以来，美国和加拿大的阿米什人从大约5000人增长到20多万人。由于高生育率和低离教率，阿米什人的人口大约每20年翻一番。为了适应人口的快速增长，阿米什人逐渐转向农业以外的职业，在该国许多不同地区建立了新的社区，并见证了宗教小群体之间的多样性增加。阿米什社会的这类社会和经济变化有可能影响养育子女、婚姻、生育、移民和健康的模式。拟议项目的具体目标包括：(1)构建过去一个世纪阿米什社区扩张的历史概况；(2)检查在北美大量社区中发现的当前阿米什人洗礼、婚姻和生育模式的统一性和多样性；(3)分析这些模式如何随时间变化；(4)调查变化对阿米什家庭和儿童健康和福祉的潜在后果。将我们的分析置于生命历程框架中，我们利用来自多个来源的定性和定量数据。我们社区层面的数据来自阿米什报纸和其他历史和当代的书面记录，为我们个人层面的研究结果提供了背景。在过去的几年里，我们也一直在构建一个独特的数据集，其中包括来自全国各地阿米什人目录的个人层面的人口统计数据。这个数据集目前包含了2003年阿米什人居住的近80%的州的信息，以及当时存在的近70%的阿米什教会地区的信息。这项提议的研究使我们准备好对我们今天对阿米什人口的理解做出独特的贡献，以及近几十年来发生的人口变化。由于高生育率，阿米什人口每20年增加一倍，这可能对母亲和儿童构成健康风险。人口快速增长造成的移徙模式也给地方领导人、地方一级的保健、医疗和其他服务提供者带来了独特的挑战。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The goal of the proposed research is to describe and analyze patterns of demographic stability and change among the Amish in North America. Since 1900, the Amish population in the United States and Canada has grown from approximately 5000 to over 200,000. Due to high fertility and low rates of leaving the faith the Amish population is doubling approximately every 20 years. To accommodate their rapid rate of population growth the Amish have progressively turned to occupations other than farming, established new communities in many different regions of the country, and witnessed an increased diversity between religious subgroups. These kinds of social and economic changes within Amish society have the potential to impact patterns of childrearing, marriage, fertility, migration and health. Specific aims for the proposed project include: (1) constructing an historical overview of Amish community expansion over the past century, (2) examining the uniformity and diversity found in current Amish patterns of baptism, marriage and fertility among a large number of communities throughout North America, (3) analyzing how these patterns may have changed over time and (4) investigating potential consequences of change for the health and well-being of Amish families and children. Placing our analyses within a lifecourse framework, we utilize both qualitative and quantitative data from multiple sources. Our community level data, taken from Amish newspapers and other historical and contemporary written accounts, provides a contextual backdrop against which our individual-level findings can be viewed. Over the past few years we have also been constructing a unique data set that includes individual level demographic data taken from Amish directories from all over the country. This data set currently includes information from almost 80 percent of the States in which the Amish lived in 2003, and from close to 70 percent of Amish church districts existing at that time. The proposed study leaves us poised to make a distinctive contribution to our understanding of Amish populations today, as well as the demographic changes that have occurred over recent decades. The doubling of the Amish population every 20 years due to high fertility may pose health risks to both mothers and children. Patterns of migration stemming from rapid population growth also present unique challenges to local leaders, health, medical and other service providers at the local level.