Statistical Methods for Network Epidemiology

描述（由申请人提供）：社会网络分析已成为艾滋病毒/性传播疾病传播动态和差异研究的核心。为了使这种方法充分发挥其潜力，理论和方法必须以经验为基础。这需要一个全面的分析策略，从一个可行的抽样网络计划开始，并使用统计框架来利用样本信息来了解人口水平的网络结构和动态。在这个项目中，我们的团队寻求建立在一个创新的研究议程，已经开发了统计理论，方法和程序需要建立一个原则性的方法来网络流行病学。我们寻求扩展目前的方法，以支持全面的动态网络建模。我们的具体目标是：1.发展用于建模网络动态的统计理论和方法。改进和扩展目前的ERGM方法来建模伙伴关系动态。B.开发ERGM的扩展以应对不断变化的人口规模和组成。C.创建专为流行病学应用设计的新网络可视化工具。2.将新方法集成到统计网络软件中进行网络分析和仿真.为实现新方法B开发健壮的代码。开发全面的帮助功能、手册和教程。通过在CRAN上发布代码和利用基于互联网的工具来确保公众访问。3.为不同领域的研究人员开发培训资源。开发一个为期5天的网络理论，研究设计，分析，模拟和可视化研讨会。B.开发一个为期2天的关于使用统计网络进行网络分析的培训讲习班。C.为跨学科外联活动举办为期1天的培训讲习班。我们的项目团队由一个跨学科的个人组成，他们有着长期的合作记录，在将网络方法应用于STI研究和预防方面拥有深厚的专业知识，在能力建设方面拥有丰富的经验，并致力于开发可公开访问的软件。我们的目标是推进网络分析科学，为流行病学和公共卫生研究提供创新的研究工具，并降低获得这些新工具的障碍。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Social network analysis has become increasingly central to the study of HIV/STI transmission dynamics and disparities. For this approach to reach its full potential, the theory and methodology must be empirically grounded. This requires a comprehensive analytic strategy that starts with a feasible plan for sampling networks, and uses a statistical framework to leverage the sample information for understanding of population level network structure and dynamics. In this project, our team seeks to build on an innovative research agenda that has developed the statistical theory, methods and programs needed to establish a principled approach to network epidemiology. We seek to extend the current methodology to support comprehensive modeling for dynamic networks. Our specific aims are to: 1. develop the statistical theory and methodology for modeling network dynamics a. Refine and extend the current ERGM approach to modeling partnership dynamics. b. Develop extensions of ERGM to handle changing population size and composition. c. Create new network visualization tools designed specifically for epidemiological applications. 2. Integrate the new methods into the stat net software for network analysis and simulation a. Develop robust code for implementing the new methods b. Develop comprehensive help functions, manuals, and tutorials c. Ensure public access by publishing the code on CRAN and exploiting internet-based tools. 3. Develop training resources for researchers from different field's a. Develop a 5 day workshop in network theory, study design, analysis, simulation and visualization. b. Develop a 2 day training workshop on using stat net for network analysis. c. Develop 1 day training workshops for interdisciplinary outreach. Our project team comprises an interdisciplinary group of individuals with a long track record of working together, deep expertise in the application of network methods to STI research and prevention, experience in capacity building, and a commitment to the development of publicly accessible software. Our goal is to advance the science of network analysis, provide innovative research tools for research in epidemiology and public health, and lower the barriers to accessing these new tools.