Monitoring the Future: A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-65

摘要 本申请是为了监测国家纵向面板数据收集的5年延续。 未来研究，这是一个正在进行的流行病学和病因学药物使用研究和报告项目 开始于1975年（N~120，000，1976 - 2027）。除了作为一个基础研究，MTF已成为一个 国家最依赖的关于非法药物、酒精和尼古丁/烟草使用趋势的信息来源 在美国的青少年、年轻人、中年人和老年人中。此MTF Panel应用程序寻求 继续对全国有代表性的高中生样本进行纵向（基于网络）调查 （模态年龄18）在模态年龄19 - 30，35，40，45，50，55，60，现在65。配套的MTF主应用程序 涵盖了全国代表性的8年级，10年级和12年级学生样本的在校数据收集， 资助横向和纵向数据分析。Main和Panel组件共同组成 综合MTF研究。MTF的广泛测量涵盖（a）超过50年的启动，使用和停止 合法和非法药物的类别和亚类，包括药物使用障碍的症状;（B） 对物质的态度和信念，感知的可用性和同伴规范;（c）个人风险和保护 因素（例如，抑郁情绪，亲社会活动）;（d）关键社会背景的方面（例如，家庭、工作），以及 社会角色地位和转变;（e）健康，社会和成就后果;（f）风险和保护 与艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播有关的行为。队列顺序纵向设计允许 衡量可能解释历史趋势和群组差异的因素。MTF面板设计用于 记录从青少年到成年（年龄）吸毒的发展过程和相关态度 18 - 65），并确定整个生命过程中药物使用的预测因素和后果。风险研究 艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播的预防和保护行为将是一个重点， 年龄在19到30岁之间。将继续跟踪大学状态的物质使用，总计45年的年度趋势 比较美国大学生和非大学生年轻人的数据。 包括在青少年药物使用历史高峰期上高中的65岁人群的数据， 现在面临着几十年后的健康下降。结果将继续阐明从青春期开始的药物使用 包括使用新的药物和模式，对国家 政策、研究、预防和治疗议程。随着我们国家看到青少年和成人电子烟的增加， 和大麻的使用，需要了解从青少年到成年的使用趋势以及对 健康、福祉、工作和家庭生活从未如此美好。

ABSTRACT This application is for a 5-year continuation of the national longitudinal panel data collections of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, an ongoing epidemiological and etiological substance use research and reporting project begun in 1975 (N~120,000, 1976-2027). In addition to being a basic research study, MTF has become one of the nation's most relied upon sources of information on trends in illicit drug, alcohol, and nicotine/tobacco use among adolescents and young, middle, and older adults in the United States. This MTF Panel application seeks to continue the longitudinal (web-based) surveys of nationally representative samples of high school students (modal age 18) at modal ages 19–30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, and now 65. The companion MTF Main application covers in-school data collections of nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students and funding for cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis. The Main and Panel components together comprise the integrated MTF study. MTF's broad measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and subcategories of licit and illicit drugs, including symptoms of substance use disorders; (b) attitudes and beliefs about substances, perceived availability, and peer norms; (c) individual risk and protective factors (e.g., depressive affect, pro-social activities); (d) aspects of key social contexts (e.g., home, work), and social role statuses and transitions; (e) health, social, and achievement consequences; and (f) risk and protective behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS. The cohort-sequential longitudinal design permits the measurement of factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences. MTF Panel is designed to document the developmental course of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence through adulthood (ages 18-65), and to determine the predictors and consequences of drug use across the life course. Research on risk and protective behaviors for the transmission of HIV/AIDS will be a focus, extending the age of monitoring to those aged 19 to 30. Substance use by college status will continue to be tracked, totaling 45 years of annual trend data comparing college students and non-college young adults in the U.S. The long-term follow-up will now include data at age 65 among cohorts who were in high school during historic peaks in teen substance use and are now facing declining health decades later. Results will continue to elucidate drug use from adolescence through adulthood—including the use of new drugs and modalities—with important implications for national policy, research, prevention, and treatment agendas. As our nation sees increases in adolescent and adult vaping and marijuana use, the need to understand trends in use from adolescence to adulthood and consequences on health, well-being, and work and family life has never been greater.