Understanding long-term cumulative human impacts on marine resources and ecosystems

海洋资源及其支持的海洋生态系统的危急状况是当今社会深刻的生态、经济和伦理问题。历史上，海洋资源和生态系统一直受到人类活动的影响，但随着时间的推移，人类影响的速度和规模以及由此产生的生态变化都在加速。科学、管理和保护中的一个基本问题是：在过去，人类的影响在多大程度上改变了物种丰富度和生态系统结构，这对物种生存和今天和未来生态系统的功能意味着什么？为了判断任何系统目前的退化或恢复状态，必须建立一个比较的历史基线。此外，未来的预测依赖于对长期趋势以及变化的根本原因和后果的了解。我们目前对多重人类影响的累积影响的理解很薄弱，特别是在大的时间和空间尺度上。拟议的研究计划通过关注两个主要目标来解决这些问题：(1)重建历史变化，评估当前状态，并制定对海洋资源和沿海生态系统结构和功能的未来预测，以及(2)揭示人类对海洋物种和生态系统的多重影响的累积影响。这项研究将整合不同的生态单元(物种、生境、生态系统)、时间(过去、现在、未来)和空间尺度(本地、区域、全球)，并结合时间序列分析、生态建模、多因素实地调查和实验室实验等方法。总体而言，拟议的研究计划将提高在生态历史、生态预测和多重生态控制累积效应等发展中领域的科学知识和能力。科学和应用的重要性使这一研究计划成为为未来科学、管理和保护方面的需求做出贡献并培养高素质人才的理想选择。

The critical state of marine resources and their supporting ocean ecosystems is of profound ecological, economical, and ethical concern for our society today. Marine resources and ecosystems have been affected by human activities throughout history, but the rate and scale of human impacts and resulting ecological changes have accelerated over time. One fundamental question in science, management, and conservation is: How much have human impacts changed species abundance and ecosystem structure in the past and what does this mean for species survival and the functioning of ecosystems today and in the future? In order to judge the current state of degradation or recovery of any system it is essential to establish a historical baseline for comparison. Moreover, future predictions rely on understanding long-term trends and the underlying causes and consequences of change. Our current understanding of cumulative effects of multiple human impacts is weak, particularly over large temporal and spatial scales. The proposed research program addresses these issues by focusing on two major objectives: (1) to reconstruct historical changes, assess current states, and develop future predictions for marine resources and the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems, and (2) to unravel the cumulative effects of multiple human impacts on marine species and ecosystems. This research will integrate different ecological units (species, habitats, ecosystems), temporal (past, present, future) and spatial scales (local, regional, global), and apply a combination of methods including time-series analysis, ecological modeling, and multi-factorial field surveys and laboratory experiments. Overall, the proposed research program will enhance scientific knowledge and capacity in the developing fields of ecological history, ecological forecasting, and the cumulative effects of multiple ecological controls. The scientific and applied importance make this research program ideal to contribute to and train highly qualified personnel for future needs in science, management, and conservation.