Forecasting species vulnerability to global change

对生态系统进行预测的一个主要限制在于解决通常研究机械过程的小尺度与种群动态、物种状态和生态系统过程相关的广泛时空尺度之间的不连续性。我的研究计划集中在这些理论和应用挑战的交叉点。我借鉴了跨尺度和生物组织水平的调查，以提高对机制的理解，这些机制支持预测何时何地不同的环境压力对物种和生态系统的持久性至关重要。为此，我的建议解决了两个基本问题的原因和全球变化的后果，在规模跨越个人人口动态的预测生态系统的弹性。1)尽管有40年的实验和理论，我们对为什么一些两栖动物种群下降而另一些没有下降的理解仍然处于初级阶段。我们能否通过更好地整合这些广泛的数据和理论，在衰退之前改善对脆弱性的预测？本计画将比较生活史与族群动态理论与实验及模型结合，以评估两栖类族群动态的预测模式。2)历史和当前压力因素的结合是否使即使是保护最好的生态系统也容易发生非线性变化和生物多样性丧失？该项目将评估是否广泛引进外来鳟鱼易受山地两栖动物和他们居住的独特生态系统的灾难性变化下气候引起的干旱。我将解决这些问题，通过现有的人口数据的荟萃分析相结合，矩阵模型模拟（包括压力和不同形式的内在人口调节），实地实验测试机械预测，和一套两栖动物的未来脆弱性的大规模GIS建模和预测。该研究计划还将为研究生和本科生提供实地生态学和尖端定量方法的重要培训，并有助于加拿大的智力能力，以实现保护生物多样性的国际目标。

A central limitation to making predictions about ecological systems lies in resolving the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are usually studied and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve understanding of mechanisms that underpin predictions of when and where different environmental stressors will be important for the persistence of species and ecosystems. To this end, my proposal addresses two fundamental questions of the causes and consequences of global change at scales spanning individual population dynamics to predictions of ecosystem resilience. 1) In spite of four decades of experiments and theory, our understanding of why some amphibian populations decline and others do not is still in its infancy. Can we improve predictions of vulnerability prior to declines by better integrating this extensive data and theory? This project will link comparative life history and population dynamics theory with experiments and modeling to evaluate predictive patterns in amphibian species population dynamics. 2) Do combinations of historic and current stressors predispose even the best-protected ecosystems to non-linear shifts and biodiversity loss? This project will evaluate whether the widespread introduction of exotic trout predispose montane amphibians and the unique ecosystems they inhabit to catastrophic shifts under climate-induced desiccation. I will address these questions through a combination of meta-analyses of existing population data, matrix model simulations (incorporating stressors and different forms of intrinsic population regulation), field experiments testing mechanistic predictions, and landscape-scale GIS modeling and projections of future vulnerability for a suite of amphibians. This research program will also provide significant training for graduate and undergraduate students in field ecology and cutting-edge quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's intellectual capacity to meet international targets for preserving biodiversity.