Bifurcation and Game Theoretic Models for Sustainable Forest Management

在过去二十年中，森林管理已经从持续产量木材管理（SYTM）转变为被称为可持续森林管理（SFM）的森林生态系统管理。在SYTM中，森林管理模型基于单一稳定状态（或平衡）的概念，这是木材生产过程中凸性和负反馈假设的结果。森林资源管理决策的建模必须基于真实和复杂的森林生态系统过程。同样，可持续森林管理要求共同管理，而不是由国家/私人机构管理，以纳入不同利益相关者的森林价值。因此，为了实现森林经营向可持续森林管理的成功转型，迫切需要建立新的森林经营模型和博弈论模型来分析森林共同经营中合作伙伴之间的相互作用。在本项目中，将针对以软材和硬木为主的北方混交林开发包含不同树种之间以及树与动物物种之间相互作用的森林管理模式；和枫树，枫树和山毛榉在五大湖圣劳伦斯地区的阔叶林中占主导地位。这些模型的主要特点是将凹凸生长函数和多重均衡结合起来。将在这些模型的基础上提出SFM规则。此外，本文还建立了三个演化博弈理论模型，分析了在北方寒带倡议下，自然资源部与原住民社区（fnc）、森林产业与fnc、自然资源部、森林产业与fnc之间可能的共同管理情况。博弈论模型的结果将用于提出共同管理协议的基本特征。培养博士3人、硕士3人、本科生3人；将发表15篇论文和3篇管理简报，并在会议上作14次发言。该方案将扩展森林管理的理论边界，并为森林管理者制定可持续森林管理规则和共同管理协议提供指导。

In the last two decades, forest management has been transforming from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to forest ecosystem management known as sustainable forest management (SFM). In the SYTM, forest management modeling was based on the concept of a single steady state (or equilibrium), an outcome of the assumptions of convexity and negative feedbacks in timber production process. The modeling for SFM decisions has to be based on real and complex forest ecosystem processes. Similarly, SFM requires co-management, rather than a management by state/private agencies, to incorporate forest values of different stakeholders. Hence, for the successful transition of forest management to SFM, there is urgent need to develop new forest management models and game theoretic models to analyze interactions between partners in forest co-management. In this program, forest management models, incorporating interactions between different tree species and between tree and animal species, will be developed for softwood-dominated and hardwood-dominated mixedwood boreal forests; and maple, and maple and beech dominated hardwood forests of the Great Lakes St Lawrence region. The main features of these models will be the incorporation of convex-concave growth functions and multiple equilibriums. SFM rules will be suggested on the basis of these models. In addition, three evolutionary game theoretical models will be developed to analyze the conditions under possible co-management situations, between Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) and First Nation Communities (FNCs), forest industry and FNCs, and the MNR, forest industry, and FNCs, under the Northern Boreal Initiative. The results of game theoretical models will be used to suggest basic features of co-management agreements. Three Ph.D., 3 M.Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 15 refereed papers and 3 management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. The program will extend theoretical boundaries of forest management and provide guidance to forest managers in developing SFM rules and co-management agreements.