Water availability assessment in the Nelson River basin using a coupled water-isotope approach

能够准确模拟加拿大北方流域水循环变化的流域模型对于正确评估径流动态和气候变化对供水的潜在影响至关重要。也许最具挑战性的方面是传统上依赖于稀疏水文数据网络的模型校准和参数化。气候变化的影响和未来供水的不确定性在北方纬度被放大，因此马尼托巴水电公司特别关注;纳尔逊河流域占该省年发电量的75%，该省98%依赖水电。该项目将为马尼托巴省的水电行业提供工具、方法和人员，以更准确地预测纳尔逊河下游流域流量的时间和数量变化。进一步开发和利用的方法，耦合水文和同位素数据在一个等水文模拟系统（isoWATFLOOD），提出了改进模型校准和减少不确定性，在未来的流量模拟。稳定的水同位素是有效的示踪剂，因为河流流量的信号很容易测量，并导致一个明确的系统标记的水循环。在五年的时间里，将培训11名高素质的人员，作为该项目的成果，将对水文技术人员进行专门培训。改进的水文预测的短期和长期变化的流态的结果将改善流量预测在下游纳尔逊河，将用于实时和未来的研究，以优化系统容量，发电，电力交易和电力销售。正确校准的流域模型是设计、规划和建设拟建未来发电站的重要组成部分，在这些发电站中，在确定水工建筑物尺寸时需要对极端洪水进行估计，以确保流入设计洪水的安全通过。 研究成果的目的是减少马尼托巴和加拿大的脆弱性，气候变化的潜在社会经济影响，在未来的气候变化的水供应量的变化所造成的。

Watershed models capable of accurately simulating changes to the water cycle in northern Canadian watersheds are essential to correctly assess runoff dynamics and potential impacts to water supply under a changing climate. Perhaps the most challenging aspect becomes model calibration and parameterization that has traditionally relied on sparse hydrometric data networks. The effects of climate change and uncertainty in future water supply are magnified in northern latitudes and therefore are of particular concern to Manitoba Hydro; the Nelson River watershed represents ~75% of annual generation in a Province that is 98% reliant on hydropower. This project will provide the hydropower industry in Manitoba with the tools, methodology, and personnel to more accurately predict changes in the timing and quantity of flow in the lower Nelson River basin. Further development and utilization of an approach that couples hydrometric and isotopic data in an iso-hydrologic modelling system (isoWATFLOOD) is proposed to improve model calibration and reduce uncertainty in future flow simulations. Stable water isotopes are effective tracers since signals in river discharge are easily measured, and result in a well-defined systematic labelling of the water cycle. Over a five year period eleven highly-qualified personnel will be trained, with specialized training for hydrometric technicians as a result of this project. The outcome of improved hydrologic prediction of both short- and long-term changes in the flow regime will be improved flow prediction in the lower Nelson River that will be used for real-time and future studies to optimize system capacity, power generation, power trading, and power sales. Properly calibrated watershed models are an essential component to the design, planning, and construction of proposed future generating sites where estimates of extreme floods are required in the sizing of hydraulic structures to ensure safe passage of the inflow design flood. Research outcomes are intended to reduce Manitoba and Canada's vulnerability to climate change by minimizing potential socio-economic impacts resulting from changing water availability under future climates.