River water temperature as a key component of fish aquatic habitat: development of new modelling tools.

水温是河流生态学中的一个重要变量。它调节鱼类和其他水生生物的栖息地数量和质量。渔业关闭和鱼类死亡与水温过高有关。我的研究计划的长期目标是为河流鱼类栖息地和生态流量的确定制定一个创新的评估框架。更具体地说，在短期内，开发与河流热状况和表征鱼类栖息地的物理变量有关的有用分析和建模工具将是我工作的主要重点。在接下来的五年里，我计划的研究主题将包括：1)开发整体水温预测模型；2)开发评估与整体预测相关的不确定性的方法；以及3)将水温纳入鲑鱼栖息地偏好模型。对于第一个研究主题，将使用统计和确定性方法开发集合预报。不确定性将部分使用贝叶斯模型平均来量化。将使用区间II型模糊集和模糊逻辑以及符号回归来将水温纳入栖息地模型。拟议的计划不仅是实施有用的栖息地建模工具的必要步骤，而且还将有助于发展中的环境水文学领域的多学科研究和培训。鉴于温度在渔业管理中的重要性，开发的工具将有利于管理鱼类种群的省和联邦政府机构，以及需要遵守旨在保持足够的鱼类河水温度的法规的加拿大工业。

Water temperature is an important variable in river ecology. It modulates habitat quantity and quality for fish and other lotic organisms. Fisheries closures and fish mortality have been linked to high water temperature. The long term objective of my research program is to develop an innovative assessment framework for river fish habitat and ecological flow determination. More specifically, on the short term, the development of useful analytical and modelling tools related to the thermal regime of river and physical variables characterizing fish habitat will be the main focus of my work. Over the next five years, research themes in my program will include: 1) Developping ensemble water temperature forecast models; 2) Developping methods to assess the uncertainty associated with the ensembles forecasts; and 3) the inclusion of water temperature in salmonid habitat preference models. For the first research theme, ensemble forecasts will be developped using both statistical and deterministic approaches. Uncertainty will be quantified in part using Bayesian model averaging. The inclusion of water temperature in habitat models will be done using Interval Type II fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, as well as symbolic regression. The proposed program is not only a necessary step in the implementation of useful habitat modeling tools, but it will also contribute to multidisciplinary research and training in the developing field of environmental hydrology. Given the importance of temperature in fisheries management, the developped tools will be benificial to provincial and federal government agencies who manage the fish stocks as well as Canadian industries who need to comply with regulations aiming at maintaining an adequate river water temperature for fish.