Decision Support System (DSS) tool development for PV solar farm's short-term output power prediction

设计和开发一种DSS工具，用于准确预测未来24小时的太阳辐射和相关光伏发电场的输出功率分布，是本项目的重点。该项目的结果使Felix Technology Inc.作为一家为可再生能源供应商和电力系统运营商提供天气信息解决方案的公司，使其业务受益。市场上现有的商业软件包不能满足公司当前的要求。该公司要求有自己的算法，与其太阳辐射数据管理系统兼容。我们将开发一个软件包/DSS工具来处理测量的太阳辐射和光伏发电场的输出功率，并预测未来24小时的光伏发电场的输出功率。我们在数据分类、随机过程的自适应预测和数据挖掘方面的专业知识将在这个项目中使用。该工具主要包括四个模块：1)数据挖掘模块；2)混合模块 预测模块；3)自适应聚类模块；4)图形用户界面。我们将使用先进的数学建模、数据挖掘技术和预测算法来构建上述软件模块，并将它们集成到Felix Tech的有用和实用的DSS工具中。我们的DSS工具将使Felix Tech在提供新的分析服务方面受益。它还将使其客户(如光伏发电场、风力发电场和电力公用事业公司)在其可再生能源系统的最佳和无风险规划和运营中受益。

Design and development of a DSS tool for accurate prediction of the sun irradiation and the related PV farm's output power profiles for the next 24 hours is the focus of this project.The results of this project enable Felix Technology Inc. to benefit their business as a company with weather information solutions for renewable energy suppliers and power system operators. The existing commercial software packages that are available in the market do not satisfy companies current requirements. The company requires to have its own algorithm that is compatible with its sun radiation data management system. We will develop a software package/DSS tool to process the measured solar radiation and PV farm output power and to predict the PV farm output power for the next 24 hours. Our expertise in data clustering, adaptive prediction of stochastic processes, and data mining will be used in this project. The proposed DSS tool has four main modules:1) data mining module; 2) hybrid forecasting module; 3) adaptive clustering module; 4) graphical user interface(GUI). We will use advanced mathematical modeling, data mining techniques and prediction algorithms to build the above named software modules and integrate them into a useful and practical DSS tool for the Felix Tech. Our DSS tool will benefit the Felix Tech in offering new analytical services. It will also benefit its customers (e.g. PV farms, Wind farms, and Power Utility companies) in optimal and risk free planning and operation of their renewable energy systems.