Design, measurement and modelling in spatio-temporal analysis

在目前的条件下，最近预测到2100年，世界人口将继续增长到150亿，这导致人们对环境风险水平上升的担忧日益加剧。预计还会发生更多事件，例如高温事件和煤炭等化石燃料消费的增加。这一黑暗的未来预示着越来越需要有效地监测空间和时间上的环境过程，以及在空间和未来无法监测的情况下预测这些过程的准确方法，以支持通过有效的政策和监管来管理和缓解这些风险。在这个未来，统计学家将发挥重要作用，特别是在量化充斥着不确定性的方面。 拟议的研究将继续申请人的长期研究方案，即时空过程监测网络的最佳设计和利用所产生的数据为空间预测和未来价值建立这些过程的模型。特别是，由于现有的网络站点往往位于优先选择的地理位置，我们将继续寻找方法，以减少以这种方式定位站点而导致的统计估计误差。这项研究还将探索一种有前景的客观方法来定位它们，一种确保它们在空间中均匀分布的方法。 研究的其余部分涉及使用来自这些网络的数据，可能会对优先选址的影响进行调整，以创建良好的时空模型。我们将继续目前的研究，寻找扩大其地理适用范围的温度场模型--当前的工作重点是北美太平洋西北地区，超出了迄今所认为的范围。这项工作的结果将被用于开发一种新的短期预测方法--这将把一系列计算机模型与温度数据结合起来，所有这些都是为了减轻高温对健康的不利影响。我们还将努力提高目前温度监测网络的效率。 但气候变化影响的不仅仅是人类物种。其他研究将涉及海洋哺乳动物，因为它们在一些地区的数量正在枯竭，原因尚不清楚。现在，这项研究将继续已经开始的对毛海豹在GPS站点之间的路径进行建模的工作，以更好地估计它们的能量消耗(从而指示它们需要多少食物)，以及了解它们寻找的栖息地。气候变化对这些栖息地的影响将是研究人口增加的影响及其对气候影响的最终目标。

The burgeoning World population, newly predicted under present conditions to continue growing to as much as 15billion by the year 2100, is leading to increasing concerns about elevated levels of environment risk. More incidents e.g. high temperature episodes and the increased consumption of fossil fuels e.g. coal are expected. This dark future portends an increased need to effectively monitor environmental processes over space and time along with accurate methods for predicting these processes where they cannot be monitored in space and in the future, to support the management and mitigation of these risks through effective policy and regulation. Statisticians have a major role to play in this future, particularly in quantifying the uncertainties that abound. The proposed research will continue the applicant’s long-term research program on the optimum design of spatio - temporal process monitoring networks and the use of the resulting data for modelling these processes for spatial prediction and future values. In particular, since existing network stations tend to be sited at preferentially selected geographical locations, we will continue seeking methods to reduce errors in statistical estimates induced by locating stations in that way. The research will also explore a promising objective method for siting them, one that insures they are well distributed over space. The remainder of the research concerns the use of data from these networks, possibly with adjustments for the effects of preferential siting, to create good spatio - temporal models. We will continue current research and seek models for temperature fields that extend their geographical domains of applicability - current work has focused the Pacific Northwest region of North America, beyond what has been considered to date. The results of this work will be used in the development of a new method for short term forecasting - this will combine an ensemble of computer models with temperature data, all in the direction of mitigating the adverse health effects of high temperatures. We will also seek to improve the efficiency of current temperature monitoring networks. But climate change is affecting not just the human species. Other research will concern marine mammals since their numbers in some regions are being depleted for reasons not yet understood. Now the research will continue work already begun on modelling the paths of fur seals between GPS sitings to better estimate their energy consumption (thus indicating how much food they need) as well as learn about the habitats they seek. The effect of climate change on these habitats will be the ultimate goal of the research on the impacts of increasing human populations and their impacts on the climate.