Ice-jam flood forecasting and ice-jam flood risk assessment

这项NSERC发现拨款计划是一项雄心勃勃的五年研究计划，旨在促进对北部河流冰塞形成和洪水的了解。这项工作的重点是实现预报和评估冰塞洪水的长期目标。洪水是加拿大发生最多的水文/气象自然灾害事件，对于加拿大的大多数河流来说，每年的最高水位都是由于冰川堵塞。目前的冰堵洪水预警系统需要广泛的现场观测，具有相当大的不确定性，因此缺乏可靠性。尽管如此，政府机构、保险公司、城市规划者和开发商迫切需要洪水预报和风险地图。这项研究计划致力于开发新的工具来预测冰塞，并评估其对北部河流沿线社区的洪水风险。本研究项目旨在开发一种更可靠的建模系统。为了实现这一长期目标，将处理妨碍我们预测冰塞事件及其后果的能力的基本问题：(1)冰塞发生的经验标准；(2)地理空间建模，以确定河流沿线的冰塞位置；(3)河道-冰川水力模型与泛滥平原模型的耦合，以计算洪水对人类生命的危险；(4)冰塞洪水(经济)风险评估和测绘。 研究成果将推进与冰有关的洪水的预测和描述，这将有助于减少洪水损失，保护易发生重大凌流和堵塞事件的河流沿线的人类生命。虽然研究结果适用于所有拥有季节性冰盖的北部国家，但研究结果将特别适用于加拿大，那里的大多数重大洪水事件都与冰有关。 预报冰冻洪水事件对于减少经济损失和减少对人类生活的影响是必要的。在这个研究项目中开发的工具将有助于扩大我们对导致严重冰堵洪水的过程的理解。北部河流沿线的许多社区经历了比公开水域洪水更严重的冰冻洪水。加拿大的许多社区目前正在重新起草或更新其洪水风险图和风险评估。大多数都集中在公开水域洪水上，因为没有指南来纳入与冰有关的洪水危险和风险。这项研究将为防凌减灾措施和降低防凌洪水风险提供新的指导意见和新的见解。

This NSERC Discovery Grant proposal is an ambitious five-year research program to advance understanding of ice-jam formation and flooding along northern rivers. This work focuses on achieving the long-term goal of forecasting and assessing ice-jam floods. Floods account for the greatest number of hydrological/meteorological natural disaster events in Canada and, for most Canadian rivers, the annual peak water levels are due to ice jams. Current ice-jam flood warning systems require extensive field observations, have considerable uncertainty and thus lack reliability. Nonetheless, flood forecasting and risk mapping are desperately needed by government agencies, insurance companies, urban planners, and developers. This research program strives to develop new tools to forecast ice jams and assess their subsequent flood risk to communities along northern rivers. This research program aims to develop a more reliable modelling system. To achieve this long-term goal, fundamental issues that impede our ability to predict ice-jam events and their consequences will be addressed: (i) empirical criteria for breakup occurrence, (ii) geospatial modelling to determine predispositions of ice jam locations along river stretches, (iii) coupling of a river-ice hydraulic model for the channel with a floodplain model to calculate flood hazard to human life and (iv) ice-jam flood (economic) risk assessment and mapping. The research findings will advance the prediction and delineation of ice-related flooding, which will aid in the reduction of flood damages and the protection of human life along rivers prone to major ice runs and jamming events. Although applicable to all northern countries that have seasonal ice covers, the research findings will be particularly applicable to Canada, where the majority of major flood events are ice-related. Forecasting ice-jam flood events is needed to reduce economic damage and reduce impacts to human life. The tools developed in this research program will help to extend our understanding of the processes leading to severe ice-jam flooding. Many communities along northern rivers experience ice-jam floods, which are more severe than open-water floods. Many communities in Canada are currently drafting anew or updating their flood hazard mapping and risk assessments. Most focus on open-water flooding because guidance is not available to incorporate ice-related flood hazard and risk. This research will provide such guidance and contribute fundamental new insights for ice-jam flood mitigation measures and ice-jam flood risk reduction.