Testing and Improving Models of Ice Sheet and Sea Level Evolution

海平面上升是与当前和预期的全球变暖有关的主要危害之一。有两个过程将在全球范围内主导这种变化：陆地冰（格陵兰和南极冰盖，较小的冰川和冰盖）的融化和海洋变暖（导致海洋水量扩大）。在加拿大，以及其他在最后一个冰河时代经历过冰川作用的高纬度地区，由于古代冰盖融化而产生的持续陆地运动也是导致现今海平面变化的重要因素。例如，加拿大大西洋沿岸地区正在经历海平面上升加剧（相对于全球平均水平），这是由于20，000 - 7，000年前冰融化造成的地面沉降。拟议中的研究将有助于我们通过比较计算机模型的输出与过去和现在气候变化相关的观测结果来理解所有这些过程。具体而言，模拟冰盖对气候变化的反应的模型和模拟海平面相应变化的模型将通过这些数据-模型比较进行测试和校准。研究的主要重点将是测试和改进格陵兰冰盖演变的模型，以便更准确地确定冰盖对未来海平面变化的贡献。这项研究的一个关键成果将是对下一个世纪及以后加拿大沿海地区未来海平面的预测。

Sea-level rise is one of the primary hazards associated with current and expected global warming. There are two processes that will dominate this change at global scales: melting of land ice (Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, smaller glaciers and ice caps) and warming of the oceans (resulting in an expansion in ocean water volume). In Canada, as well as other high latitude regions that experienced glaciation during the last Ice Age, on-going land motion in response to the melting of ancient ice sheets is also a significant contributor to present day sea-level change. For example, coastal areas of Atlantic Canada are experiencing enhanced sea level rise (relative to the global mean) because of land subsidence due to the melting of ice between 20,000-7,000 years before present. The proposed research will contribute to our understanding of all of these processes through comparing output from computer models to observations relating to both past and present climate change. Specifically, models that simulate the response of ice sheets to climate change and those that simulate the corresponding changes in sea level will be tested and calibrated through these data-model comparisons. A primary focus of the research will be testing and improving models of Greenland ice sheet evolution so that the contribution of this ice sheet to future sea-level change can be more accurately determined. A key delivery of the research will be forecasts of future sea levels during the next century and beyond around Canadian coasts.