Projections of municipal water demand with ANN and SD models under climate change

在过去的三十年里，北美的水务公司已经观察到居民用水量下降。因为他们通常是按单位水量来收费的，所以这种减少用水的做法会产生财务影响。此外，水费通常是提前几年确定的，因此，不准确的月度至年度预测加剧了减少用水的财务影响。在小时至 ** 周的较短时间范围内，供水公司也作出业务决定，以满足市政需求。短期预报有助于 ** 规划系统基础设施的维护和运行时间表，并为有关水位 ** 和水库水位下降的决策提供信息，而且它们往往受天气影响。因此，准确预测 ** 城市用水量对于城市 ** 水管理的短期（运营）和长期（规划）方面都很重要。该项目将1）为阿尔伯塔埃德蒙顿的EPCOR提供每日（运行）和每周（计划）用水 ** 需求的预测模型，2）将每周需求纳入长期市政用水管理的独特决策 ** 支持工具。这两个预测模型将使用人工神经网络（ANN）开发，人工神经网络已广泛应用于水需求预测。人工神经网络提供 ** 出色的预测能力，并且开发和验证相对简单。接下来，人工神经网络模型的规划 ** 版本将用于修改现有的市政水管理模型，称为 ** 卡尔加里水管理模型（CWMM），这将是建立埃德蒙顿。CWMM可用于 ** 支持几年到几十年的市政规划，特别适用于评估 ** 人口增长、气候变化的影响以及保护政策和技术变革的长期影响。

Water utilities across North America have observed declining residential water consumption over the past three**decades. Because they typically bill for water use on a per-unit-volume basis, such reductions in use have**financial implications. Further, water rates are usually set years ahead of time, so that inaccurate monthly to**annual predictions compound the financial effects of reduced water use. On shorter time scales of hours to**weeks, water utilities also make operational decisions to meet municipal demands. Short term forecasts help to**plan maintenance and operating schedules for system infrastructure and inform decisions about water levels**and drawdowns for reservoirs, and they tend to be dominated by weather. Thus, accurate prediction of**municipal water use is important for both short-term (operational) and long-term (planning) aspects of urban**water management.**This project will 1) provide forecasting models for both daily (operational) and weekly (planning) water**demands for EPCOR in Edmonton, Alberta, and 2) incorporate the weekly demands into a unique decision**support tool for long-term municipal water management. The two forecasting models will be developed using**Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), which have been applied widely for water demand projections. ANNs offer**excellent predictive ability and are relatively straightforward to develop and validate. Next, the planning**version of the ANN model will be used to revise an existing municipal water management model, called the**Calgary Water Management Model (CWMM), which will be set up for Edmonton. The CWMM can be used to**support municipal planning horizons of years to decades and is particularly useful for assessing the effects of**population growth, climate change and the effects of conservation policies and technological change over the**long term.