Quantification of fire effects and post-fire dynamics

由于全球气候变化，加拿大森林的自然干扰预计将在频率、严重程度和范围上增加。充分了解这些扰动对森林碳库的影响以及扰动后的动态（如枯木动态、更新）至关重要。因此，扰动效应和恢复动态需要在一系列生态区域中按类型和严重程度进行量化。当前和长期的干扰影响需要纳入碳预算模型，这些模型越来越多地用于制定适应气候变化的战略和确保可持续的森林管理做法。***本研究的长期目标有三个：(1)增强我们解释和模拟干扰严重程度及其对碳库影响的空间变异性的能力；(2)利用结合森林清查数据和遥感数据进行因果推理的方法，对自然干扰对森林资源的影响进行量化，从而提高我们对自然干扰影响的认识；(3)通过实施和分析长期监测样地，提高对森林生态系统扰动后动态的认识。建议的工作重点是通过分析不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC）内陆和沿海森林的森林野火来实现长期研究目标，这些野火在BC省造成了紧迫的环境和社会问题。重点开展3个相互关联的研究项目：(1)火灾严重程度的空间变异及其对碳库的影响；(2)区域火灾效应评估；(3)BC省沿海森林火灾后监测。拟议研究计划的结果将提高我们评估、建模和模拟即时和长期火灾影响的能力。需要增加对自然干扰动力学的了解，以支持森林管理决策，从而实现可持续的森林管理，并将提供参数，以改进现有碳预算模型的校准

Natural disturbances in Canadian forests are expected to increase in frequency, severity, and extent due to global climate change. It is critical to fully understand the impact of these disturbances on forest carbon pools as well as post-disturbance dynamics (e.g., dead wood dynamics, regeneration). As a result, disturbance effects and recovery dynamics need to be quantified by type and severity across a range of ecoregions. The immediate and long-term disturbance impacts need to be incorporated into carbon budget models which are increasingly being used to develop adaptation strategies to climate change and to ensure sustainable forest management practices.***The long-term goals of my research are threefold: (1) enhance our ability to explain and model spatial variability in disturbance severity and its impact on carbon pools; (2) advance our knowledge of natural disturbance impacts on forest resources by quantifying disturbance effects with methods that allow making causal inferences from forest inventory data in combination with remote sensing data; and (3) improve our understanding of post-disturbance dynamics in forest ecosystems by implementing and analyzing long-term monitoring plots. The proposed work focuses on achieving the long-term research goals by analyzing forest wildfires in British Columbia (BC) interior and coastal forests that cause pressing environmental and social problems in BC. The proposed work will focus on three inter-related research projects: (1) Spatial variability of fire severity and impacts on carbon pools; (2) regional fire effects estimates, and (3) post-fire monitoring in BC coastal forests.***The results of the proposed research program will improve our ability to assess, model, and simulate immediate and long-term fire effects. Increased understanding of natural disturbance dynamics is needed to support forest management decisions that lead to sustainable forest management and will also provide parameters to improve the calibration of existing carbon budget models.***