Statistical and Numerical Modelling of Volcanic Eruption Processes

该研究计划的主要长期目标是对地球上火山活动的时间和空间方面进行全面的统计分析，以及太阳系其他行星上的火山地貌，并开发一个物理上真实的数值模型来模拟火山喷发过程。计算机模型将根据观测结果进行测试和校准，以验证和区分控制火山爆发的各种物理机制。这将使我们能够更好地了解喷发过程的物理性质，从火山危害评估和缓解的角度来看，这是至关重要的，因为概率预测在其中起着至关重要的作用。火山过程的数值模拟是了解火山爆发的机制和物理及其所造成的危害的最有希望的方法之一。然而，现有的火山爆发计算机模型仍处于早期发展阶段，不能再现观测到的火山爆发特征的全部光谱。总之，在这个研究项目中，我和我的学生将研究地球上火山活动的各个方面，特别是火山喷发时间序列的统计特征。除了时间统计外，我们还将分析与地球和其他行星上火山形成过程有关的火山地貌的空间尺度特性。我们还将开发一个基于晶格-气体元胞自动机结合地壳损伤/愈合流变学的综合计算机喷发模型，以便更好地了解火山活动区上升的多组分流体岩浆与周围地壳之间的复杂相互作用。研究结果将为建立真实的基于物理的火山喷发模型提供基础。

The main long-term objectives of the proposed research program are to carry out comprehensive statistical analyses of temporal and spatial aspects of volcanism on Earth, volcanic landforms on the other planetary bodies of the solar system and to develop a physically realistic numerical model to simulate volcanic eruption processes. The computer model will be tested and calibrated against observations in order to validate and discriminate between various physical mechanisms controlling the volcanic eruptions. This will allow us to gain a better understanding of the physics of eruption processes and is crucial from the volcanic hazard assessment and mitigation points of view where probabilistic forecasting plays an essential role. Numerical simulations of volcanic processes are one of the most promising approaches to understand the mechanisms and physics of volcanic eruptions and the hazard they pose. However, existing computer models of volcanic eruptions are still in their early development phases and do not reproduce the whole spectrum of the observed characteristics of eruptions. In summary, in this research program I and my students will study various aspects of volcanism on Earth, particularly, the statistical characteristics of temporal sequences of eruptions. In addition to the temporal statistics, we will analyse the spatial scaling properties of volcanic landforms which are related to the processes of volcano formation on Earth and other planets. We will also develop a comprehensive computer eruption model based on a lattice-gas cellular automaton combined with damage/healing rheology of the crust in order to better understand the complex interactions between rising multi-component fluid magma and surrounding crust in a volcanically active region. The results of the proposed research will provide a basis for the development of realistic physics-based volcano eruption models.