Is it possible to control avian influenza virus transmission?

禽流感（Avian Influenza，AI）是一种重要的家禽疾病。禽流感病毒（AIV）可通过多种途径传播，包括口粪和空气传播途径，然而，不同途径在AIV暴发中的相对影响尚不清楚。AIV的传播目前受到严格的生物安全措施的控制，尽管在最近的一些疫情中，例如2015年美国的疫情，很明显这些措施在控制病毒传播方面并不完全有效。疫苗接种或其他基于免疫的战略可为生物安保提供一种补充办法。事实上，我们实验室所做的工作已经表明，使用免疫增强分子，无论是作为独立的抗病毒化合物还是作为疫苗佐剂，都可以减少病毒脱落。然而，目前尚不清楚病毒脱落的减少是否可以转化为实验或田间水平的病毒传播减少。在拟议的研究中，我们的目标是利用我们在过去几年中产生的知识，开发和优化方法，使鸡对病毒产生免疫力，并减少病毒复制，脱落和传播给其他鸡。为了评估我们提出的方法在鸡群水平上阻断AIV传播的有效性，我们将建立数学模型来模拟实验条件下的病毒传播。 然后，我们将使用这些模型和实验室数据产生的知识，以创建一个决策支持系统（DSS）的框架控制AIV。拟议的决策支持将考虑来自实验挑战工作、农场级模拟以及其他几个数据来源的数据，包括天气和气候、候鸟和家禽贸易。这项研究应提供利益相关者所需的信息，包括CFIA和家禽业，作为他们处理未来AIV爆发的决策过程的一部分。

Avian Influenza (AI) has emerged as an economically important disease of poultry. Avian influenza viruses (AIV) can be transmitted via various routes, including oral-fecal and airborne routes, however, the relative impact of different routes in AIV outbreaks is unknown. AIV spread is currently controlled by strict biosecurity measures, although in some of the recent outbreaks, e.g. the 2015 US outbreak, it was clear that these measures were not entirely effective at control of virus spread. Vaccination or other immune-based strategies may offer a complementary approach to biosecurity. In fact, the work done by our lab has already shown that using immune enhancing molecules, either as stand-alone antiviral compounds or as vaccine adjuvants, can reduce virus shedding. However, it is not clear whether a reduction in virus shedding can translate into a reduction in virus transmission experimentally or at the field level. In the proposed research, we aim to use the knowledge we have generated over the last several years and develop and optimize ways to confer immunity in chickens against the virus and curtail virus replication, shedding and transmission to other chickens. To assess efficacy of our proposed approaches in disrupting transmission of AIV at the flock level, we will develop mathematical models to simulate virus transmission under experimental conditions. We will then use the knowledge generated using these models and laboratory data to create a decision support system (DSS) framework for control of AIV. The proposed decision support will take into account data derived from experimental challenge work, farm level simulation as well as several other data sources, including weather and climate, migratory birds, and poultry trade. This research should provide the information needed by stakeholders, including CFIA and poultry industry, as part of their decision- making process for dealing with future outbreaks of AIV.