High-Resolution Climate Projections for Municipal Risk Assessment and Resilience Planning

该伙伴关系的目标是支持埃德蒙顿市的气候变化适应和恢复战略，提供高时空分辨率的未来气候预测和不确定性分析，以协助规划者、工程师、管理者和政策制定者为不确定的未来做出决策。我们在埃德蒙顿市的合作伙伴正在实施一项雄心勃勃的气候变化适应和恢复战略，该战略需要拟议项目提供的科学信息类型。从一系列气候模型预测中，我们将根据天气和水变量超过临界阈值的概率和后果，确定市政资产和公共服务的气候风险。我们将为工程和规划应用中的气候预测和不确定性提供指导。我们将分析来源的不确定性，以解释和解释气候预测之间的差异。通过运行预测气候的水文模型，我们将生成关于气候驱动的河流水位和雨水径流变化的数据。我们的树木年轮记录横跨西部和北方阿尔伯塔，是工业化前气候和水文的独特记录。我们将比较900年的区域水文气候记录的气候模型预测，从而确定埃德蒙顿的未来气候将在多大程度上超出自然气候周期的范围。通过探索全方位的气候变化，我们将提供数据和知识，以限制气候风险，并为决策提供信息，以实现具有弹性的城市社区。拟议的研究填补了加拿大城市制定和执行适应计划所需数据和信息的规模和类型方面的知识空白，埃德蒙顿是案例研究。

The goals of the partnership are to support the City of Edmonton's Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Strategy by providing projections of the future climate at high spatial and temporal resolution, and an analysis of uncertainty, to assist planners, engineers, managers and policy makers with decision-making for an uncertain future. Our partners at the City of Edmonton are implementing an ambitious climate change adaptation and resilience strategy that requires the type of scientific information provided by the proposed project. From a range of climate model projections, we will identify climate risks to municipal assets and public services in terms of the probability and consequences of exceeding critical thresholds in weather and water variables. We will provide guidelines for translating the climate projections and uncertainties for engineering and planning applications. We will analyze sources uncertainty to interpret and explain differences among climate projections. By running a hydrological model with the projected climate, we will generate data on climate driven changes in river levels and stormwater runoff. Our tree-ring records from across western and northern Alberta are a unique record of the pre-industrial climate and hydrology. We will compare a 900-year record of the regional hydroclimate to climate model projections and thereby determine the extent to which the future climate of Edmonton will be outside the range of natural climate cycles. By exploring the full range of climatic variability, we will supply data and knowledge to limit climate risks and inform decision making to achieve a resilient urban community. The proposed research fills a knowledge gap in terms of the scale and type of data and information required to develop and implement adaptation plans for Canadian cities, with Edmonton as the case study.