Evaluating future scenarios for the global ocean

海洋是一个全球性的社会生态系统，其生态、社会经济和制度环境因全球环境变化而迅速变化。GEC的直接驱动因素影响海洋的生物物理和生态特性，并影响从基因到物种、种群、群落和生态相互作用的许多层次的生物组织。它们还可以强烈地影响物种分布和生物地理。重要的是，人口或治理系统等间接驱动因素也对海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务产生重大影响。该研究计划将基于全球生态系统模型综合体，对未来海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务变化进行综合评估。量化海洋生产力的未来趋势对于为正在进行的气候变化和生物多样性评估提供信息并指导实现关键政策目标的可行途径至关重要。因此，为了预测海洋生物多样性、生态系统服务的提供和使用模式的未来，我们需要将海洋作为一个社会-生态系统来看待，包括商业和非商业物种的动态及其相互作用、资源使用者的动态及其相互作用，以及环境条件变化和管理干预对这些动态的影响。这意味着在预测未来情景的建模方法方面取得了进展，这对于了解地球和海洋的功能以及人类可能造成的影响至关重要。拟议的方案依赖于一种技术复杂的方法，并结合跨学科工作。多个数据集的整合是在全球一级进行的，但分析将保留按国家和区域分列的信息，以捕捉和分析生态系统功能和驱动因素的区域动态。分析将包括大量物种，考虑物种特征和相互作用、生态系统结构和功能，以及各种人类活动和社会经济价值。这将使我们能够考虑生物多样性和生态系统服务的多个层面(供应、管理和文化)。这项工作将把社会经济学与生物多样性动态结合起来，并为新一代模型做出贡献。该计划将在很大程度上有助于预测和建议适应全球变化对海洋社会生态系统的影响的途径，这项工作将通过其在IPCC模式比较项目中的积极作用，为基础研究以及对影响的国际评估做出贡献。该计划将使我们有能力实现生态系统服务的可持续利用，并对如何使用替代管理措施缓解气候变化影响进行全球范围的评估。这将有助于确定“安全作业空间”，以确保生态系统服务在不同气候变化未来下的可持续性。

The ocean is a global social-ecological system whose ecological, socioeconomic and institutional settings show rapid change due to Global Environmental Change (GEC). GEC direct drivers impact biophysical and ecological properties of the ocean and affect many levels of biological organization, from genes to species, populations, communities and ecological interactions. They can also strongly influence species distribution and biogeography. Importantly, indirect drivers such as demography or governance systems also strongly impact marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. The research program is to produce integrated assessments of future marine biodiversity and ecosystem service changes based on a global ecosystem modelling complex. Quantifying future trends of marine productivity is critical to inform ongoing climate-change and biodiversity assessments and guide feasible pathways towards achieving key policy objectives. Therefore, to predict the future of marine biodiversity, ecosystem services delivery and use patterns, we need an integrated view of the ocean as a social-ecological system, encompassing the dynamics of commercial and non-commercial species and their interactions, the dynamics of resource users and their interactions, and how those are affected by changing environmental conditions and management interventions. This implies a progress towards modelling approaches for predictions of future scenarios, which are essential to understand the functioning of the Earth and the Ocean, and the impacts that humans may pose. The proposed program relies on a technically complex approach, combined with interdisciplinary work. Integration of multiple datasets is at the global level, but the analysis will retain information by country and region to capture and analyse regional dynamics of ecosystem functioning and drivers. The analysis will include a vast array of species, considering species traits and interactions, ecosystem structure and functioning, and a variety of human activities and socio-economic values. This will allow us to consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating and cultural). The work will couple socio-economics with biodiversity dynamics, and contribute to a new generation of models. The program will substantially contribute to predict and suggest adaptive pathways to the impact of global change in marine social-ecological systems, and the work will through its active role in IPCC Model Intercomparison Projects contribute to basic research as well as international assessments of the impact. The program will inform our ability to achieve sustainable use of ecosystem services with a global-scale evaluation of how alternative management measures can be used for mitigation of climate change impacts. This will contribute to the identification of a "safe operational space" to ensure sustainability of ecosystem services under different climate change futures.