Ice-jam flood forecasting

这项为期五年的研究计划将使我能够在冰塞洪水的预测和评估方面取得进展。在北方高纬度地区，冰塞占河流洪水的40%以上。提议者在制定冰塞洪水预报和评估方法方面取得了一些进展。这些方法已被纳入由加拿大省级政府运作的冰塞洪水预报系统。需要进一步的研究，使改进和扩展的方法，包括：（一）影响释放的堵塞，已释放上游的洪水风险区的利益，（二）开发频率分布的位置的冰塞lodgments，（三）二维描述的洪泛区，将危险，由于冰碎片和（四）计算洪水风险的冰塞洪水预报的背景下。研究结果将改善我们对与冰有关的洪水的预测和描述，以帮助减少洪水损失和保护容易发生重大冰流和堵塞事件的河流沿着人类生命。虽然适用于所有有季节性冰盖的北方国家，但研究结果将特别适用于加拿大，因为加拿大大多数重大洪水事件都与冰有关。预报冰塞洪水事件是减少经济损失和减少对人类生活的影响所必需的。在这项研究计划中开发的工具将有助于改善和推进我们对导致严重冰塞洪水的过程的理解。北方河流沿着的许多社区遭遇冰塞洪水，比开放水域洪水更严重。加拿大的许多社区目前正在重新起草或更新其洪水灾害绘图和风险评估。大多数集中在开放水域洪水，因为几乎没有指导，将冰相关的洪水灾害和风险纳入整体洪水管理计划。这项研究将提供额外的指导，并为冰塞洪水缓解措施和冰塞洪水风险降低提供基本的新见解。

This five-year research program will allow me to make advancements in the forecasting and assessment of ice-jam floods. Ice-jams account for over 40% of riverine floods in northern, high-latitude regions. The proponent has made some gains in the development of ice-jam flood forecasting and assessment methodologies. These methods have been incorporated in ice-jam flood forecasting systems operated by provincial governments in Canada. Additional research is required to make refinements and extensions to the methodologies including: (i) impact of the release of jams that have released upstream of the flood risk area of interest, (ii) developing frequency distributions of the location of ice-jam lodgments, (iii) two-dimensional description of the floodplain to incorporate hazard due to ice debris and (iv) calculating flood risk in an ice-jam flood forecasting context. The research findings will improve our predictions and delineations of ice-related flooding, to help in the reduction of flood damages and the protection of human life along rivers prone to major ice runs and jamming events. Although applicable to all northern countries that have seasonal ice covers, the research findings will be particularly applicable to Canada, where the majority of major flood events are ice-related. Forecasting ice-jam flood events is needed to reduce economic damage and reduce impacts to human life. The tools developed in this research program will help to improve and advance our understanding of the processes leading to severe ice-jam flooding. Many communities along northern rivers experience ice-jam floods, which are more severe than open-water floods. Many communities in Canada are currently drafting anew or updating their flood hazard mapping and risk assessments. Most focus on open-water flooding because little guidance is available to incorporate ice-related flood hazard and risk in the overall flood management plans. This research will provide additional guidance and contribute fundamental new insights for ice-jam flood mitigation measures and ice-jam flood risk reduction.