Resilience Quantification and Risk Management of Water Resources Systems

水资源对我们社会的可持续发展至关重要。最近，与水有关的灾害对我们的基础设施提出了前所未有的要求，危及公共安全，阻碍经济增长。2013年阿尔伯塔的特大洪水迫使10万多人撤离，预计损失和恢复成本将超过60亿加元。自2012年以来，加州一直面临严重的干旱，2015年，它造成了27亿美元的经济影响和21，000个工作岗位的损失。与水有关的灾害的预测和管理正面临着各种挑战所产生的不确定性和相互关联的复杂性，如随机降水事件，随机流过程，系统参数的不精确估计，决策过程中的模糊信息的众多来源。这些不确定性可能导致难以量化复原力，从而难以确定可靠的风险管理战略。该研究计划旨在开发一系列新的技术和方法，用于水资源系统的弹性量化和风险管理。重点领域一包括发展水文预报的不确定性分析和随机模拟技术。重点领域二涉及推进频率分析和多标准分析，以进行风险评估和复原力量化。重点领域三旨在根据创新的混合不精确优化方法制定一个综合风险管理框架。拟议的研究计划是一个独特的贡献，与环境风险管理的方法，在各种不确定性的分析和量化方面。它还将提供专门的HQP培训，以满足全球对水资源系统可靠风险管理框架的需求，巨大的洪水/干旱破坏，重大的污染减排成本，以及水资源管理实践的深刻社会经济影响，需要向弹性设计，级联减灾规划和系统性风险管理方法的范式转变。这项研究将为水资源管理提供直接和强大的决策支持，如水利基础设施设计，水库调度，洪泛区规划和干旱缓解。它将帮助加拿大的行业和各级政府不仅提高其管理水和环境风险的有效性，而且还提高其在不断变化的世界中对极端事件的准备，应对和恢复能力。

Water resources are crucial to the sustainable development of our societies. Recently, water related hazards have been imposing unprecedented demands on our infrastructure, jeopardizing public safety, and hampering economic growth. The catastrophic floods in Alberta in 2013 forced the evacuation of over 100,000 people, and the damage losses and recovery costs are projected to exceed CAD $6 billion. California has been facing severe drought since 2012, and, in 2015, it incurred an economic impact of USD $2.7 billion and 21,000 job losses. The prediction and management of water related hazards are facing various challenges arising from numerous sources of uncertainties and interconnected complexities, such as random precipitation events, stochastic flow processes, imprecise estimates of system parameters, and fuzzy information in decision making processes. These uncertainties can lead to difficulties in quantifying resilience and thus, identifying reliable risk management strategies. The proposed research program is designed to develop a series of new techniques and approaches for the resilience quantification and risk management of water resources systems. Focus Area I includes the development of uncertainty analysis and stochastic simulation techniques for hydrological forecasting. Focus Area II involves the advancement of frequency analysis and multi-criterion analysis for risk assessment and resilience quantification. Focus Area III aims at developing an integrated risk management framework based on innovative hybrid inexact optimization approaches. The proposed research program represents a unique contribution to methodologies related to environmental risk management, in terms of the analysis and quantification of various uncertainties. It will also provide specialized training of HQP that is tailored to meet the global needs for reliable risk management framework of water resources systems.The vast flood/drought damage, major pollution abatement costs, and profound socio-economic impacts of water resources management practices necessitate a paradigm shift towards resilient design, cascading hazard mitigation planning, and systemic risk management approaches. This research will provide direct and robust decision support for water resources management, such as hydraulic infrastructure design, reservoir operation, floodplain planning, and drought mitigation. It will help industries and different levels of government in Canada not only to improve their effectiveness in managing water and environmental risks, but also to enhance their preparedness for, response to, and resilience under, extreme events in an ever-changing world.