Evaluating future scenarios for the global ocean

海洋是一个全球性的社会生态系统，其生态、社会经济和制度环境因全球环境变化而发生快速变化。GEC直接驱动因素影响海洋的生物物理和生态特性，并影响从基因到物种、种群、群落和生态相互作用的许多层面的生物组织。它们还能强烈地影响物种分布和生物地理。重要的是，人口或治理系统等间接驱动因素也会强烈影响海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务。该研究项目将基于全球生态系统模型，对未来海洋生物多样性和生态系统服务变化进行综合评估。量化海洋生产力的未来趋势对于为正在进行的气候变化和生物多样性评估提供信息，并指导实现关键政策目标的可行途径至关重要。因此，为了预测海洋生物多样性、生态系统服务提供和利用模式的未来，我们需要将海洋作为一个社会-生态系统的综合观点，包括商业和非商业物种的动态及其相互作用、资源使用者的动态及其相互作用，以及这些动态如何受到不断变化的环境条件和管理干预的影响。这意味着在预测未来情景的建模方法方面取得了进展，这对于了解地球和海洋的功能以及人类可能造成的影响至关重要。拟议的计划依赖于技术上复杂的方法，结合跨学科的工作。多个数据集的整合是在全球层面上进行的，但分析将保留按国家和区域划分的信息，以捕捉和分析生态系统功能和驱动因素的区域动态。分析将包括大量的物种，考虑物种特征和相互作用，生态系统结构和功能，以及各种人类活动和社会经济价值。这将使我们能够考虑生物多样性和生态系统服务的多个维度（供应、调节和文化）。这项工作将把社会经济学与生物多样性动态结合起来，并为新一代模型做出贡献。该项目将为预测和建议适应全球变化对海洋社会生态系统影响的途径做出重大贡献，并将通过其在IPCC模式比较项目中的积极作用，为基础研究和国际影响评估做出贡献。该项目将告知我们实现生态系统服务可持续利用的能力，并在全球范围内评估如何使用替代管理措施来减轻气候变化的影响。这将有助于确定“安全操作空间”，以确保未来不同气候变化下生态系统服务的可持续性。

The ocean is a global social-ecological system whose ecological, socioeconomic and institutional settings show rapid change due to Global Environmental Change (GEC). GEC direct drivers impact biophysical and ecological properties of the ocean and affect many levels of biological organization, from genes to species, populations, communities and ecological interactions. They can also strongly influence species distribution and biogeography. Importantly, indirect drivers such as demography or governance systems also strongly impact marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. The research program is to produce integrated assessments of future marine biodiversity and ecosystem service changes based on a global ecosystem modelling complex. Quantifying future trends of marine productivity is critical to inform ongoing climate-change and biodiversity assessments and guide feasible pathways towards achieving key policy objectives. Therefore, to predict the future of marine biodiversity, ecosystem services delivery and use patterns, we need an integrated view of the ocean as a social-ecological system, encompassing the dynamics of commercial and non-commercial species and their interactions, the dynamics of resource users and their interactions, and how those are affected by changing environmental conditions and management interventions. This implies a progress towards modelling approaches for predictions of future scenarios, which are essential to understand the functioning of the Earth and the Ocean, and the impacts that humans may pose. The proposed program relies on a technically complex approach, combined with interdisciplinary work. Integration of multiple datasets is at the global level, but the analysis will retain information by country and region to capture and analyse regional dynamics of ecosystem functioning and drivers. The analysis will include a vast array of species, considering species traits and interactions, ecosystem structure and functioning, and a variety of human activities and socio-economic values. This will allow us to consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating and cultural). The work will couple socio-economics with biodiversity dynamics, and contribute to a new generation of models. The program will substantially contribute to predict and suggest adaptive pathways to the impact of global change in marine social-ecological systems, and the work will through its active role in IPCC Model Intercomparison Projects contribute to basic research as well as international assessments of the impact. The program will inform our ability to achieve sustainable use of ecosystem services with a global-scale evaluation of how alternative management measures can be used for mitigation of climate change impacts. This will contribute to the identification of a "safe operational space" to ensure sustainability of ecosystem services under different climate change futures.