Mathematical Sciences: Models for the Dynamics of InfectiousDiseases and Social Interactions with Applications to AIDS Epidemiology

8906580 Castillo-Chavez这个项目有两个目标。首先是确定在确定传染病传播速度方面可能至关重要的机制，并对可能的干预战略的相对价值作出初步评价。重点将放在HIV（人类免疫缺陷病毒，艾滋病的病原）的动态上。第二个目标是为人口水平的数学流行病学、社会动态及其与理论人口生物学领域的联系方面的坚实的长期研究计划奠定基础。该项目的主要目标是开始系统地研究社会互动的动态及其在性传播疾病和传染病动态中的作用。Castillo-Chavez将使用现象学框架来描述人类混合模式，并开发确定性数学模型（涉及单一或相互作用的人群），以确定社会混合，可变传染性，长期传染性以及艾滋病毒动态中的辅助因素的作用。次要目标包括通过系统地综合不同类型的社会混合和分析它们对其他传染病传播的影响，提高数学流行病学和人口动态领域的数学方法。

8906580 Castillo-Chavez This project has two objectives. The first is to identify mechanisms that may be crucial in determining the rate of spread of infectious diseases and to make initial evaluations of the relative value of possible intervention strategies. The emphasis will be on the dynamics of HIV (Human Immuno-Deficiency Virus, the etiological agent for AIDS). The second objective is to create the basis for a solid long-term research program in mathematical epidemiology at the population level, on social dynamics, and on their connections to the field of theoretical population biology. This project's principal goal is to begin a systematic study of the dynamics of social interactions and their role in the dynamics of sexually-transmitted and communicable diseases. Castillo-Chavez will use a phenomenological framework to describe human mixing patterns, and deterministic mathematical models (involving single or interacting populations) will be developed to determine the role of social mixing, variable infectivity, long periods of infectiousness and, co-factors in the dynamics of HIV. Secondary goals include upgrading of the mathematical methodology in the areas of mathematical epidemiology and population dynamics by systematically integrating different types of social mixing and analyzing their effect on the transmission of other infectious diseases.