Consensus and Disagreement on Probabilities: Implications for International Agreement on Policies to Mitigate Global Warming

这项提案研究了当各国对全球变暖发生的速度有多快的看法存在分歧时所产生的问题。目标是了解这种信念分歧如何影响可能通过的各种国际协定，并探索即使在概率上不存在共识的情况下也可能导致更好的国际解决办法的形式或机制。这项研究还旨在确定在目前的信念范围和缓解成本的情况下，可能达成的协议类型。该项目的主要部分是当概率信念不同时国际环境政策的决策理论模型。我们在可能被考虑的一套特定的国际环境政策的背景下研究这一点。该项目的第二部分是对信仰和缓解成本在各国的分布进行的初步实证分析。这些估计中的大部分应该可以从其他来源获得，该项目希望揭示各国在全球变暖问题上的环境政策之间的一些直接的经验关系。

This proposal studies the problem arising when countries disagree over their beliefs about how fast global warming is occurring. The objective is to understand how this divergence of beliefs affects the kinds of international agreements that are likely to be adopted and to explore formats or mechanisms that might lead to better international solutions even if no consensus on probabilities exists. The study also aims to pinpoint the kinds of agreements that might be possible given the current range of beliefs and mitigation costs. The major part of the project is a decision theory model of international environmental policies when probability beliefs differ. We study this in the context of a particular set of international environmental policies that are likely to be considered. The second part of the project is a beginning empirical analysis of the distribution of beliefs and mitigation costs across countries. Most of these estimates should be available from other sources, and this project hopes to uncover some straightforward empirical relationships among countries' environmental policies with respect to global warming.