Consensus and Disagreement on Probabilities: Implications for International Agreement on Policies to Mitigate Global Warming

关于概率的共识和分歧：对缓解全球变暖政策的国际协议的影响

• 批准号: 9109574
• 负责人: John Horowitz
• 金额: $ 4.49万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-08-15 至 1993-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9109574&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Consensus; Disagreement; Probabilities; Implications; International

This proposal studies the problem arising when countries disagree over their beliefs about how fast global warming is occurring. The objective is to understand how this divergence of beliefs affects the kinds of international agreements that are likely to be adopted and to explore formats or mechanisms that might lead to better international solutions even if no consensus on probabilities exists. The study also aims to pinpoint the kinds of agreements that might be possible given the current range of beliefs and mitigation costs. The major part of the project is a decision theory model of international environmental policies when probability beliefs differ. We study this in the context of a particular set of international environmental policies that are likely to be considered. The second part of the project is a beginning empirical analysis of the distribution of beliefs and mitigation costs across countries. Most of these estimates should be available from other sources, and this project hopes to uncover some straightforward empirical relationships among countries' environmental policies with respect to global warming.

这项建议研究了当各国意见不一致时出现的问题 他们对全球变暖速度的看法。 的 目的是了解这种信念的分歧如何影响 有可能被采纳的国际协议 并探索可能导致更好的 国际解决方案，即使没有就可能性达成共识 存在. 这项研究还旨在确定协议的种类 这可能是可能的，因为目前的信仰范围， 缓解成本。 这个项目的主要部分是一个决定 国际环境政策的理论模型， 概率信念不同。 我们在一个 一套特定的国际环境政策， 可能会被考虑。 该项目的第二部分是一个 开始对信仰的分布进行实证分析， 各国的减排成本。 这些估计数中的大部分应 可以从其他来源获得，这个项目希望揭示 国家之间的一些直接的经验关系 关于全球变暖的环境政策。