An Investigation into the Effects of Feedback, Attributions,and Expertise on Overconfidence in Marketing Management Prediction

营销管理预测中反馈、归因和专业知识对过度自信影响的调查

• 批准号: 9211215
• 负责人: Jayashree Mahajan
• 金额: $ 1.72万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-07-15 至 1993-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9211215&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Investigation; into; Effects; Feedback; Attributions

Estimating the likelihood of future events is a critical aspect of making a variety of managerial decisions. A predominant finding in prior research is that individuals are overconfident. This Research Planning grant is to develop a research plan seeks to theoretically investigate why overconfidence occurs by drawing upon prior work on how cognitions are used in decisions. The focus of this research is on comparing the effects of evaluative and outcome feedback, the underlying attributional process that is invoked and the moderating effect of expertise. Four separate experiments will be designed. Each experiment will be comprise three stages and data will be gathered using an interactive computer program. The manipulated experimental variables will consist of evaluative feedback, nonevaluative feedback, attributions, and expertise; while there will be repeated measures on item domain. Subjects will perform the judgment task in the context of making a strategic plan. The research requires planning activities such as theory development, development of experimental stimulus, operationalization of independent factors, and identification of experimental procedures. The proposed research will contribute to existing knowledge on the overconfidence bias and isolate conditions when it can be reduced. It will foster research on overconfidence in an application context (i.e., marketing and strategic planning) where there are likely to be tangible benefits.

估计未来事件发生的可能性是 做出各种管理决策。 一个主要的发现是， 先前的研究表明，人们过于自信。 这 研究规划补助金是制定一项研究计划， 从理论上研究为什么过度自信会发生， 之前关于认知如何用于决策的研究。 的焦点 本研究旨在比较评价性和结果性的影响， 反馈，被调用的潜在归因过程， 专业知识的调节作用。 将设计四个单独的实验。 每个实验将 包括三个阶段，数据将使用 交互式计算机程序。 被操纵的实验 变量将包括评价性反馈、非评价性反馈 反馈、归因和专业知识;虽然会重复 项目域上的措施。 受试者将执行判断任务 在制定战略计划的过程中。 研究需要规划活动，如理论 发展，实验刺激的发展， 独立因素的操作化， 实验程序。 这项研究将有助于 关于过度自信偏差和孤立的现有知识 条件时，可以减少。 它将促进研究， 应用上下文中的过度自信（即，营销和 战略规划），其中可能有切实的好处。