Mathematical Sciences: Innovative Statistical Methods for Biological Life Spans and Oldest-Old Mortality

数学科学：生物寿命和高龄死亡率的创新统计方法

• 批准号: 9404906
• 负责人: Jane-Ling Wang
• 金额: $ 8.63万
• 依托单位: University of California-Davis
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-07-01 至 1998-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9404906&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mathematical; Sciences; Innovative; Statistical; Methods

We investigate mortality of the oldest-old by means of nonparametric hazard function estimation based on smoothing techniques for lifetables. Two- dimensional smoothing methods for Lexis diagrams will be developed allowing to predict the survival of demographic cohorts, employing kernel and locally weighted least squares smoothers. Male-female comparisons and changes in the level of mortality will be investigated with change-point techniques. Stochastic process models for samples of lifetables and associated inference will be introduced. It is planned to analyze various biological and demographic data sets with these methods, in particular a huge set of data on the survival of medflies. In this interdisciplinary project, newly developed nonparametric statistical techniques will be applied to approach a complex of biological and demographic qu estions about longevity and mortality of the oldest segment of the population. These questions focus on whether mortality is decreasing for the oldest segment or is invariably increasing with age, how sex differences affect changes in mortality, and to what degree one can predict future mortality and life expectation from current trends. The importance of these problems derives from their potential impact on social planning for the future as well as on the biology of aging. Attacking these problems requires the development of new statistical methods and the innovative application of existing statistical methods to analyze current biological experiments and demographic data

我们通过基于寿命表平滑技术的非参数风险函数估计来研究高龄老人的死亡率。将开发Lexis图的二维平滑方法，使用核函数和局部加权最小二乘平滑器来预测人口队列的存活率。将使用变点技术调查男女死亡率水平的比较和变化。将介绍寿命样本的随机过程模型和相关推理。计划用这些方法分析各种生物和人口数据集，特别是关于蜻蜓生存的大量数据。在这个跨学科的项目中，新开发的非参数统计技术将被应用到一个关于人口中年龄最大的部分的寿命和死亡率的生物学和人口学问题的复合体。这些问题集中在年龄最大部分的死亡率是下降还是总是随着年龄增加，性别差异如何影响死亡率的变化，以及根据目前的趋势可以在多大程度上预测未来的死亡率和预期寿命。这些问题的重要性源于它们对未来社会规划以及老龄化生物学的潜在影响。解决这些问题需要开发新的统计方法，并创新应用现有的统计方法来分析当前的生物实验和人口统计数据