Electoral Systems, Party Strategies and Bargaining Complexity

选举制度、政党策略和谈判复杂性

• 批准号: 9730275
• 负责人: Norman Schofield
• 金额: $ 8万
• 依托单位: Washington University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-03-15 至 1999-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9730275&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Electoral; Systems; Party; Strategies; Bargaining

A long-standing argument in political theory is that the use of a majoritarian electoral system, based on single member districts, is associated with stable government. Conversely, the use of proportional representation (PR) is associated with fragmented policies and `weak` coalition governments. Macro-political analyses to justify these arguments are somewhat inconclusive, because of the wide variety of PR policies. This research addresses this question by micro-political methods focusing on the nature of party and voter strategies in twelve polities. For nine of these polities (Belgium, Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands) a `multinomial probit` electoral model has been devised, based on 1979 survey and elite data. In Israel, a conditional logit model has been constructed based on 1992 and 1996 surveys and manifesto data. These models will be extended to analyze elections in these countries to the present day, by incorporating party responses to electoral and economic disturbances. These data are augmented by new information on Poland and Russia. For Poland, a combination of opinion poll data, elite interviews and party manifestos will be used to study strategic behavior by parties and voters, in the context of a mixed majoritarian/PR electoral system. In Russia, elite interviews and study of party manifestos will be used to structure the nature of the policy space of relevance to political factions. This research focuses on the incentives for factions to coalesce in a political situation which is highly fragmented and uncertain. The theoretical purpose of the research is to understand the nature of the formation of factions and parties in the context of differing electoral systems. By `endogenizing` parties in this fashion, it is hoped that the research will lead, in the long run, to an account of the obvious differences, in party structure and coalition behavior, displayed by these various polities.

政治理论中一个长期存在的论点是，使用基于单一成员区的多数选举制度与稳定的政府有关。 相反，比例代表制的使用与分散的政策和“软弱”的联合政府有关。 宏观政治分析来证明这些论点是有点不确定的，因为各种各样的公关政策。 本研究采用微观政治学的研究方法，以十二个国家的政党和选民策略为研究对象。 对于其中9个国家（比利时、英国、丹麦、法国、德国、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡和荷兰），根据1979年的调查和精英数据，设计了一个“多项概率”选举模型。 在以色列，根据1992年和1996年的调查和宣言数据建立了一个条件罗吉特模型。 这些模型将通过纳入政党对选举和经济动荡的反应，扩展到分析这些国家迄今的选举。 有关波兰和俄罗斯的新资料补充了这些数据。 对于波兰，结合民意调查数据，精英访谈和党的宣言将被用来研究战略行为的政党和选民，在一个混合的多数/公关选举制度的背景下。 在俄罗斯，精英访谈和对政党宣言的研究将被用来构建与政治派别相关的政策空间的性质。 本研究的重点是在高度分散和不确定的政治局势中，派系联合的动机。 研究的理论目的是了解不同选举制度背景下派系和政党形成的性质。 通过以这种方式“内生化”政党，人们希望，从长远来看，研究将导致这些不同的政治在政党结构和联盟行为方面的明显差异。