Globalization, Productivity, and Growth: Aggregate and Plant-Level Implications

自第二次世界大战以来，各国对外国制造的商品和外国技术都越来越开放。拟议的研究调查了全球化如何影响生产力和增长，在总体和工厂层面。它旨在回答一些悬而未决的问题：扩大开放对创新和增长意味着什么？贸易壁垒的减少会在多大程度上导致工厂关闭，幸存下来的公司在利用更大的出口机会时能增长多少？机械贸易在多大程度上促进了技术的传播？美国和日本等主要创新国家的资本品出口在发展中国家的增长中发挥了什么作用？处理这些问题的分析框架将贸易模式与技术和地理因素联系起来。技术随着国家的创新而发展，在各国之间产生更大的效率差异，而随着思想的传播，这些差异也在逐渐消失。在研发方面做得更多的国家面临的国际竞争较少，因为他们使用的更多技术对其他国家来说仍然是未知的。因此，这些国家的公司拥有更大的市场力量。以前关于这些问题的实证工作主要基于汇总措施，或者没有使用一致的分析框架。但是，仅凭总体数据还不足以深入了解经济政策对单个企业的影响。该框架的一个特性是它能够组合聚合级和工厂级数据。拟议的工作有三个组成部分。首先，研究人员将开发一个关于创新、扩散、贸易和增长的多国模型。其次，他们将使该模型适合于世界各地的贸易流动、研究努力和生产率的汇总数据，以及来自美国和法国的工厂级数据。第三，他们将使用由此产生的框架作为定量工具来回答有关全球化的总体和企业层面影响的问题。

Since the Second World War countries have become increasingly open, both to foreign-made goods and to foreign technologies. The proposed research investigates how globalization affects productivity and growth, both at the aggregate and plant level. It aims to answer a number of open questions: What does increased openness imply for innovation and growth? To what extent will reductions in trade barriers lead to factory shutdowns and how much do surviving firms grow as they exploit greater export opportunities? To what extent does trade in machinery promote the diffusion of technology? What role do the capital goods exports of major innovating countries, such as the United States and Japan, play in the growth of developing countries?The analytic framework for addressing these questions relates trade patterns to technological and geographical factors. Technologies evolve as countries innovate, creating greater differences in efficiency among countries, and, as ideas diffuse, eroding these differences. Countries that perform more R&D face less international competition since more of the technologies they use are still unknown to others. Firms in these countries consequently have greater market power.Previous empirical work on these issues has been based largely on aggregate measures or has not used a consistent analytic framework. But aggregate data alone are not rich enough to provide insight into the effects of economic policies on individual firms. A feature of the framework here is its ability to combine aggregate and factory level data. The proposed work has three components. First, the investigators will develop a multi-country model of innovation, diffusion, trade, and growth. Second, they will fit the model to aggregate data on trade flows, research effort, and productivity around the world, and to factory level data from the United States and France. Third, they will use the resulting framework as a quantitative tool to answer questions about the aggregate and firm-level effects of globalization.