Globalization, Productivity, and Growth: Aggregate and Plant-Level Implications

自第二次世界大战以来，各国对外国制造的商品和外国技术都变得越来越开放。这项拟议的研究调查了全球化如何影响总体和植物层面的生产率和增长。它旨在回答一些悬而未决的问题：增加开放对创新和增长意味着什么？贸易壁垒的减少将在多大程度上导致工厂关闭，幸存下来的公司在利用更大的出口机会时会增长多少？机械贸易在多大程度上促进了技术的传播？美国和日本等主要创新国家的资本货物出口在发展中国家的增长中扮演什么角色？解决这些问题的分析框架将贸易模式与技术和地理因素联系起来。技术随着国家的创新而发展，在国家之间创造了更大的效率差异，随着思想的传播，这些差异被削弱了。进行更多研发的国家面临的国际竞争较少，因为它们使用的更多技术仍不为其他国家所知。因此，这些国家的公司拥有更大的市场力量。以前对这些问题的实证工作主要是基于总体衡量标准，或者没有使用一致的分析框架。但仅靠汇总数据还不够丰富，不足以洞察经济政策对个别公司的影响。该框架的一个特点是能够将聚合数据和工厂级数据结合在一起。拟议的工作有三个组成部分。首先，调查人员将开发一个创新、扩散、贸易和增长的多国模式。其次，他们将模型与世界各地的贸易流动、研究努力和生产率数据进行整合，并与美国和法国的工厂水平数据进行匹配。第三，他们将使用由此产生的框架作为一种量化工具，回答有关全球化的总体和企业层面影响的问题。

Since the Second World War countries have become increasingly open, both to foreign-made goods and to foreign technologies. The proposed research investigates how globalization affects productivity and growth, both at the aggregate and plant level. It aims to answer a number of open questions: What does increased openness imply for innovation and growth? To what extent will reductions in trade barriers lead to factory shutdowns and how much do surviving firms grow as they exploit greater export opportunities? To what extent does trade in machinery promote the diffusion of technology? What role do the capital goods exports of major innovating countries, such as the United States and Japan, play in the growth of developing countries?The analytic framework for addressing these questions relates trade patterns to technological and geographical factors. Technologies evolve as countries innovate, creating greater differences in efficiency among countries, and, as ideas diffuse, eroding these differences. Countries that perform more R&D face less international competition since more of the technologies they use are still unknown to others. Firms in these countries consequently have greater market power.Previous empirical work on these issues has been based largely on aggregate measures or has not used a consistent analytic framework. But aggregate data alone are not rich enough to provide insight into the effects of economic policies on individual firms. A feature of the framework here is its ability to combine aggregate and factory level data. The proposed work has three components. First, the investigators will develop a multi-country model of innovation, diffusion, trade, and growth. Second, they will fit the model to aggregate data on trade flows, research effort, and productivity around the world, and to factory level data from the United States and France. Third, they will use the resulting framework as a quantitative tool to answer questions about the aggregate and firm-level effects of globalization.