The Impact of Public Opinion, the Party Balance, Interest Groups, and Social Movement Organizations on Congressional Support for Policy Change

两个相关的问题长期以来一直是关于民主政府的学术和公众辩论的核心。首先，一个民主国家的公共政策是否受到公众整体的强烈影响？第二，在所有民主国家中，为影响政策而建立的组织——政治、利益集团和社会运动组织（SMOs）——是否帮助公众影响政策，或者它们是否使特定群体即使在大多数公众反对的情况下也能获得他们想要的政策？民主理论的支持者认为，民主政府对公众舆论作出反应，总的来说，面对公众舆论，政治组织对政策的直接影响很小。然而，其他理论认为公众舆论对政策的影响很小，并提出政治组织对政策有强大而直接的影响。拟议的研究将检验源于这一争议的三个假设：(1)国会对政策变化的支持最强烈地受到公众政策偏好及其关注程度的影响；(2)当公众意见分歧严重或相对冷漠时，党派平衡可能会影响国会对政策提案的支持度：随着公众对某一问题的关注和对某一政策提案的支持度增加，党派平衡的影响会减小；但政党平衡可能比利益集团或SMOs更有影响力；(3)当公众意见分歧严重或相对冷漠时，利益集团和SMOs可能会影响国会对政策提案的支持；但随着公众对一个问题的关注和对某项提案的支持增加，利益集团和SMOs的影响就会减少。这些假设将通过分析国会对第二次世界大战以来考虑的政策建议样本的支持来检验。支持度将以两种方式衡量：从政策提案首次提出到通过或离开国会议程，国会对法案的支持程度；以及国会审议提案的最终结果——它们是被制定为法律、重新制定，还是被允许衰弱和消亡。为了检验这些假设，拟议的研究将收集和分析在审议特定政策建议期间有关公众舆论和政治组织活动的数据。有关公众意见和公众关注程度的数据将来自现有的民意调查。关于中介组织活动的数据将取自国会听证会、大众传播媒介和其他可公开获得的文件。

Burstein, PaulSES-0001509Two related questions have long been central to scholarly and public debate about democratic government. First, is public policy in a democracy influence strongly by the public as a whole? Second, do the organizations created to influence policy in all democracies-political, interest groups, and social movement organizations (SMOs) -help the public influence policy, or do they enable particular groups to get the policies they want even if a majority of the public is opposed?The proponents of democratic theory contend that democratic governments respond to public opinion and that, on balance, political organizations have little direct influence on policy in the face of public opinion. Other theories, however, see public opinion as having little impact on policy, and propose that political organizations have strong, direct impacts on policy.The proposed research will test three hypotheses stemming from this controversy: (1) congressional support for policy change is affected most strongly by the public's policy preferences and its intensity of concern; (2) the party balance is likely to affect congressional support for policy proposals when the public is closely divided or relatively indifferent: as the public's concern about an issue and support for a particular policy proposal increase, the impact of the party balance will decrease; but the party balance is likely to have a greater effect than either interest groups or SMOs; and (3) interest groups and SMOs may affect congressional support for policy proposals when the public is closely divided or relatively indifferent; but as the public's concern about an issue and support for a particular proposal increase, the impact of interest groups and SMOs will decrease.The hypotheses will be tested through an analysis of congressional support for a sample of policy proposals considered since World War II. Support will be gauged in two ways: Congressional sponsorship of bills from the time policy proposals are first introduced until they are either enacted or leave the congressional agenda; and the ultimate outcome of congressional consideration of proposals-whether they were enacted into law, reframed, or allowed to languish and die. To test the hypotheses, the proposed research will collect and analyze data on public opinion and the activities of political organization for the periods during particular policy proposals are under consideration. Data on public opinion and the intensity of the public concern will come from available polls. Data on the activities of intermediary organizations will be drawn from congressional hearing, the mass media, and other publicly available documents.