Continuing Study of the Dynamics of Long-Term Climate Change

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This award is for continued studies of long-term climatic change aimed at developing a predictive theory that can account for the ever-increasing geological proxy evidence for the co-evolution of the climatic variables. These variables can be subdivided into (a) the fast response atmospheric and surface state quantities that equilibrate relatively rapidly, and (b) the slow-response, high-inertia quantities (e.g., ice sheet mass, deep ocean temperature, carbon inventories) that carry the main long-term evolution and comprise the "center manifold" of the climate system to which the fast response variables are attracted. The studies involve statistical analyses of the relevant time-series records, and theoretical studies based on both general circulation models (governing the fast-response, equilibrium, parts of the climate system) and dynarnical-system models (governing the slow-response, non-equilibrium processes). The goal is to enlarge upon present theories of late Cenozoic climatic evolution in several directions.