The Physics of Hurricane Intensity Change

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Dr. Gray and his colleagues will continue their investigations into the basic structure and dynamics of tropical cyclones, focusing on the mechanisms responsible for intensity change. A particularly challenging and intriguing part of the work will be an exploration of the nature of the inner core of the hurricane and the evolution of the region known as the "eye wall". A relatively new source of observations, the GPS dropwindsondes, will be examined and should provide far more detailed information than has been available previously. Other topics to be pursued include studies of processes responsible for variations in the tropical cyclone's outer region, factors that influence the maximum potential intensity of these storms, and improving methods for predicting changes in hurricane structure and intensity. In addition to the dropwindsondes, the reseachers will employ satellite data, particularly satellite-derived winds; surface, and aircraft flight level data. Although there have been significant improvements in recent years in the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, the same is not true with respect to the forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. The results of this research could have significant impact for improving our understanding and, ultimately, forecasting storm intensity. This project is jointly supported by the Mesoscale Dynamic Meteorology and Large-scale Dynamic Meteorology Programs.