Empirical Climate Prediction

经验气候预测

• 批准号: 0087398
• 负责人: William Gray
• 金额: $ 45万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-12-15 至 2003-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0087398&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Empirical; Climate; Prediction

The PI will examine extended range seasonal prediction with emphasis on seasonal tropical cyclone activity. He will study four areas: extended-range forecasting of total incidence and US landfalling of tropical cyclones, extended-range forecasting of intraseasonal (month-to-month) tropical cyclone variability, expanded analysis of the nature and role of stratospheric QBO-linked modulation of tropical weather and tropical cyclone activity, and analysis of the role of SST anomalies in the northeast Pacific (West and South of Mexico and Central America) in relation to seasonal trends in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This research is important because it may lead to improved predictions on storms and hurricanes. This may lead to an improvement in mitigating the effects of such extreme events both in terms of human lives and the economy.

热带气旋预报中心将研究更广泛的季节性预报，重点是季节性热带气旋活动。他将研究四个领域：热带气旋总发生率和美国登陆的扩展预测；热带气旋季节内(月与月)变化的扩展预测；热带天气和热带气旋活动的平流层QBO相关调制的性质和作用的扩展分析；以及东北太平洋(墨西哥西部、南部和中美洲)海温异常与大西洋热带气旋活动季节性趋势的作用分析。这项研究很重要，因为它可能会改进对风暴和飓风的预测。这可能导致在减轻这种极端事件对人的生命和经济的影响方面有所改善。