Climate Analysis and Extended Range Seasonal Prediction

气候分析和扩展范围季节性预测

• 批准号: 9714910
• 负责人: William Gray
• 金额: $ 41.15万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-11-15 至 2000-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9714910&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Climate; Analysis; Extended; Range; Seasonal

Abstract ATM-9714910 Gray, William M. Colorado State University Title: Climate Analysis and Extreme Range Seasonal Prediction This research is for further development and application of a range of extended climate forecasting schemes. These schemes include 1) seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, extending to specific groupings of hurricanes by origin and movement, 2) seasonal rainfall in West Africa, tropical areas of the Atlantic, Americas and East Pacific and 3) ENSO variability. Along with the basic science concerning underlying physical mechanisms, this work seeks greater forecast accuracy at 9 to 14 month lead times. This research into long range climate prediction, if successful, will have significant societal impacts in mitigating the effects of seasonal and interannual climate variability.

摘要ATM-9714910 Gray，William M. 科罗拉多州立大学题目：气候分析和极端范围季节性预测 这项研究是为了进一步发展和应用一系列扩展的气候预报方案。 这些计划包括：1）大西洋和东太平洋盆地的季节性飓风活动，包括按起源和移动划分的特定飓风类别; 2）西非、大西洋热带地区、美洲和东太平洋的季节性降雨量; 3）厄尔尼诺/南方涛动变化。 沿着有关基本物理机制的基础科学，这项工作寻求在9至14个月的提前期内获得更高的预测准确性。 这项对长期气候预测的研究如果成功，将对减轻季节性和年际气候变化的影响产生重大的社会影响。