Climate Analysis and Extended Range Seasonal Prediction

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Abstract ATM-9714910 Gray, William M. Colorado State University Title: Climate Analysis and Extreme Range Seasonal Prediction This research is for further development and application of a range of extended climate forecasting schemes. These schemes include 1) seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, extending to specific groupings of hurricanes by origin and movement, 2) seasonal rainfall in West Africa, tropical areas of the Atlantic, Americas and East Pacific and 3) ENSO variability. Along with the basic science concerning underlying physical mechanisms, this work seeks greater forecast accuracy at 9 to 14 month lead times. This research into long range climate prediction, if successful, will have significant societal impacts in mitigating the effects of seasonal and interannual climate variability.