Physical Processes of Tropical Cyclone Formation, Structura Variability and Intensity Change

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The principal investigator and his colleagues will continue their investigations directed at understanding the physical processes involved in the formation, structural characteristics, and intensity of tropical cyclones. In particular, Dr. Gray will attempt to answer the question why some tropical disturbances develop into tropical cyclones, or hurricanes, while others do not and the role of the environmental flow in that process. Much of the research involves the use of composite data sets developed by Dr. Gray and associates over the last several decades as well as data from an upcoming field experiment, the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment, sponsored by the Office of Naval Research. In addition, Dr. Gray plans to collaborate with colleagues at Colorado State University on a numerical modeling project to test some of his hypotheses on the role of low level wind surges in the development of tropical cyclones. This research is important, not only for improving our basic understanding of a key feature of the atmosphere, but also as a contribution to improving prediction of these potentially very destructive storms.