Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction and Understanding

本研究涉及大范围的季节性和季节性飓风研究和预报。这种方法是经验/统计方法。主要研究三个方面：(1)改进大西洋盆地大范围季节性飓风预报；(2)大西洋飓风活动季内（逐月）预报的改进；(3)美国飓风登陆概率预报的改进。主要的重点仍然是预测大西洋盆地的季节性热带气旋活动。大西洋盆地季节性飓风统计预报的发展导致飓风与全球气候特征之间的物理关系的发现，如果没有预测的目的，这些关系可能不会被发现。随着最近综合观测/模式再分析数据集的发展，以及新的卫星信息，新的研究机会已经出现。PI正在揭示许多涉及大西洋气旋和飓风的新的物理关系。更广泛的影响：PI的季节性和月度飓风预报被保险机构、媒体和公众使用。他的团队的预测倾向于将公众的注意力吸引到即将到来的飓风季节，以及它可能造成的生命和财产损失。季节预报和登陆概率预报的持续改进有利于美国沿海地区的各种利益。

This research is related to extended range intra-seasonal and seasonal hurricane research and forecasting. The approach is empirical/statistical. The three areas of research are (1) improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) improvement of intra-seasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) improvement in probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall. The primary focus continues to be on predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity. The development of statistical Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts has led to the discovery of physical relationships between hurricanes and global climate features that would likely not have been uncovered without the purpose of prediction. With the recent development of integrated observational/modeled reanalysis data sets, along with new satellite information, new research opportunities have become available. The PI is uncovering many new physical relationships involving Atlantic cyclones and hurricanes.Broader Impacts: The PI's seasonal and monthly hurricane forecasts are used by insurance agencies, the media and the general public. His team's forecasts tend to bring the public's attention to the upcoming hurricane season and its potential for loss of both life and property. The continued improvement of both seasonal forecasts and landfall probability forecasts are beneficial to a variety of U.S. coastal interests.