Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction and Understanding

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This research is related to extended range intra-seasonal and seasonal hurricane research and forecasting. The approach is empirical/statistical. The three areas of research are (1) improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) improvement of intra-seasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) improvement in probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall. The primary focus continues to be on predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity. The development of statistical Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts has led to the discovery of physical relationships between hurricanes and global climate features that would likely not have been uncovered without the purpose of prediction. With the recent development of integrated observational/modeled reanalysis data sets, along with new satellite information, new research opportunities have become available. The PI is uncovering many new physical relationships involving Atlantic cyclones and hurricanes.Broader Impacts: The PI's seasonal and monthly hurricane forecasts are used by insurance agencies, the media and the general public. His team's forecasts tend to bring the public's attention to the upcoming hurricane season and its potential for loss of both life and property. The continued improvement of both seasonal forecasts and landfall probability forecasts are beneficial to a variety of U.S. coastal interests.