Hurricane Convection and Intensity Change

热带气旋强度变化的预测仍然是一个非常困难的问题。其中一个原因是与热带气旋有关的动力和热力学过程尚不清楚。PI计划使用从侦察飞行任务中收集的飞行水平和全球定位卫星（GPS）下降探空数据，以及卫星和雷达检索数据，以1)研究内核结构和动力学，重点研究驱动飓风内核对流的力量及其对飓风涡旋的反馈；2)研究热带气旋边界层运动和热力结构的变率；3)改进了利用观测资料基于切向风廓线预测热带气旋短期强度的方法。计划中的研究有可能提供有关热带气旋结构和强度变化的新知识，并为强度预测产生新的概念模型。

Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity change remains a very difficult problem. One reason is that the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with tropical cyclones are not well understood. The PI plans to use flight-level and Global Position Satellite (GPS) dropsonde data collected from reconnaissance flight missions, as well as satellite and radar retrieved data, to 1) study the inner-core structure and dynamics with emphasis on forces driving hurricane inner-core convection and its feedback to the hurricane vortex; 2) investigate the variability of the tropical cyclone boundary layer kinematic and thermodynamic structure; and 3) improve methods of predicting short-term tropical cyclone intensity based on the tangential wind profile using observational data. The planned research has the potential of providing new knowledge on tropical cyclone structure and intensity change, as well as generating a new conceptual model for intensity prediction.