Hurricane Convection and Intensity Change

飓风对流和强度变化

• 批准号: 0227628
• 负责人: William Gray
• 金额: $ 20.57万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-11-15 至 2004-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0227628&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hurricane; Convection; Intensity; Change

Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity change remains a very difficult problem. One reason is that the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with tropical cyclones are not well understood. The PI plans to use flight-level and Global Position Satellite (GPS) dropsonde data collected from reconnaissance flight missions, as well as satellite and radar retrieved data, to 1) study the inner-core structure and dynamics with emphasis on forces driving hurricane inner-core convection and its feedback to the hurricane vortex; 2) investigate the variability of the tropical cyclone boundary layer kinematic and thermodynamic structure; and 3) improve methods of predicting short-term tropical cyclone intensity based on the tangential wind profile using observational data. The planned research has the potential of providing new knowledge on tropical cyclone structure and intensity change, as well as generating a new conceptual model for intensity prediction.

热带气旋强度变化的预报一直是一个十分困难的问题。 原因之一是人们对热带气旋的动力学和热力学过程还没有很好的了解。 PI计划利用从侦察飞行任务中收集的飞行高度和全球定位卫星（GPS）下投式探空仪数据，以及卫星和雷达检索数据，1）研究内核结构和动力学，重点是驱动飓风内核对流的力量及其对飓风涡旋的反馈; 2）研究热带气旋边界层运动学和热力学结构的变化;改进利用切向风廓线资料预报短期热带气旋强度的方法。计划中的研究有可能提供有关热带气旋结构和强度变化的新知识，并产生一个新的强度预测概念模型。