Hurricane Convection and Intensity Change

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Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity change remains a very difficult problem. One reason is that the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with tropical cyclones are not well understood. The PI plans to use flight-level and Global Position Satellite (GPS) dropsonde data collected from reconnaissance flight missions, as well as satellite and radar retrieved data, to 1) study the inner-core structure and dynamics with emphasis on forces driving hurricane inner-core convection and its feedback to the hurricane vortex; 2) investigate the variability of the tropical cyclone boundary layer kinematic and thermodynamic structure; and 3) improve methods of predicting short-term tropical cyclone intensity based on the tangential wind profile using observational data. The planned research has the potential of providing new knowledge on tropical cyclone structure and intensity change, as well as generating a new conceptual model for intensity prediction.