BE/CNH: Conference on Robustness of Coupled Natural and Human Systems

自然和人类的耦合系统在数学上可以被视为动力系统(微分方程组或差分方程组)，其中人类作为系统的一部分或通过影响某些过程而参与其中，无论是有意还是无意的。或者，它们可以被视为复杂系统--从事受规则控制的行为的代理的集合。在任何一种情况下，稳健性指的是这种动态或复杂系统在状态空间中演化时的稳定性和抗扰动能力。一个动力系统称为结构稳定的，如果对该系统的适当小的扰动导致一个具有相同定性动力学的新的动力系统。稳健性的概念提出了稳定性理论范围之外的问题，如系统组织和系统动力学的相互作用。适应和正反馈等过程可以增加生物系统和自然与人类耦合系统的稳健性，但效率和稳健性之间的联系可能是相反的，在面对不断变化的环境条件时，最佳效率是以牺牲稳健性为代价的。在某些情况下，稳健性可能是进化系统的紧急特性，或者可能通过设计系统来增强它们的稳健性。为了解决这些问题，该奖项将主办一次会议，会议将于2003年春季在圣达菲研究所举行。会议将汇集来自物理、数学、计算机科学、地球和气候科学、生态学、人类学和考古学等一系列学科的科学家，讨论理论研究和案例研究，重点是案例研究的比较讨论。论文将提前分发，并在所有与会者参加的单一论坛上提交。随着现代工业系统对地球自然系统的影响变得越来越明显，可持续发展问题变得至关重要，自然和人类系统耦合的稳健性问题越来越受到关注。这次会议将有助于探索从行星(气候)和宏观尺度到社会文化系统的中尺度到疾病微观进化的微观尺度的自然和人类耦合系统的稳健性。与会者将探索不同空间尺度与不同时间尺度的联系，他们将帮助回答一些关键问题，包括通过分析现有数据或通过模拟建模来评估稳健性是最好的，工程系统在稳健性和/或成本和收益方面与复杂的自适应系统相比如何，以及在什么情况下最有可能发展健壮系统。通过这次会议，与会者和其他学者将开发新的见解和新的方法来研究自然和人类耦合系统的稳健性。该项目的更广泛影响包括扩大跨学科科学家网络，以便在合作框架内探讨这一重要主题。他们的讨论和随后的协作活动的结果最终可为土地和资源管理人员以及负责维护环境质量的其他人员带来许多实际利益。该项目得到了2002财年环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的一个奖项的支持，该竞赛的重点是自然和人类耦合系统的动力学。

Coupled natural and human systems may be viewed mathematically as dynamical systems (systems of differential or difference equations) in which humans are involved either as parts of the system or by influencing some processes, whether intentionally or not. Alternatively they may be considered as complex systems -- collections of agents engaged in rule-governed behavior. In either case, robustness refers to the stability and resistance to perturbation of such dynamical or complex systems as they evolve in state space. A dynamical system is said to be structurally stable if reasonably small perturbations to the system result in a new dynamical system with the same qualitative dynamics. The concept of robustness raises questions that lie outside the purview of stability theory, such as the interplay of system organization and system dynamics. Processes like adaptation and positive feedback can increase the robustness of living systems and coupled natural and human systems, but the linkage between efficiency and robustness may be an inverse one in which optimal efficiency is at the expense of robustness in the face of changing environmental conditions. In some cases, robustness may be an emergent property of evolved systems, or it may be possible to engineer systems to enhance their robustness. To address these issues, this award will sponsor a conference to be held at the Santa Fe Institute in the Spring of 2003. The conference will bring together scientists from a range of disciplines, including physics, mathematics, computer science, earth and climate science, ecology, anthropology and archaeology, to discuss theoretical research and case studies, with emphasis being placed on comparative discussion of the case studies. Papers will be circulated in advance and presented in a single forum attended by all conference participants. Results of the conference are expected to be publishedThe robustness of coupled natural and human systems has become a matter of increasing concern as the modern industrial system's impact on the natural systems of the planet becomes more and more apparent and issues of sustainability become paramount. This conference will contribute to explorations of robustness in coupled natural and human systems at scales ranging from planetary (climate) and macroscales through the mesoscale of sociocultural systems to the microscopic scale of disease microevolution. Participants will explore the association of different spatial scale with varying temporal scales, and they will help answer a number of critical questions, including whether robustness is best assessed by analysis of existing data or through simulation modeling, how engineered systems compare to complex adaptive systems in terms of robustness and/or a calculus of costs and benefits, and under what circumstances robust systems are most likely to develop. Through this conference, participants and other scholars will develop new insights into and new approaches for investigating robustness in coupled natural and human systems. Broader impacts of this project include the expansion of an interdisciplinary network of scientists to explore this important topic in a collaborative framework. The results of their discussions and subsequent collaborative activities could ultimately yield many practical benefits for land and resource managers as well as others who have responsibilities associated with maintaining environmental quality. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2002 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.