Integrative Modeling of Environmental Change in Agroecosystem

密歇根大学的这一奖项支持了一位文化人类学家在印度尼西亚巴厘岛的研究，他研究了湿稻农业灌溉系统的正式属性。主要重点是了解，鉴于在获得资源和合作激励方面不可避免的不对称，稳定的合作模式如何在灌溉系统管理方面持续存在。 该研究将开发和测试一个与以前的模型不同的模型，通过整合有关区域生态系统的更现实的信息，并通过扩展社交世界，在迭代游戏中包括N个玩家。 由此产生的模型应预测生态过程的变化（灌溉流量，害虫扩散等）和各种合作或“背叛”战略的回报。 这些因素结合起来可以预测应对环境变化的合作模式，例如由于采用“绿色革命”农业而导致的害虫增加（因此，要建模的因果关系是复杂的，因为人类的决定改变了环境变量，然后影响到后来的决定）。 PI和他的学生将通过三个夏天的实地考察记录农业和生态变量的措施来开发和测试模型。 该项目以创新的方式结合了研究和教学，因为学生将积极参与实地工作和模型规范。 这项研究很重要，因为这种形式的农业在世界上类似的生态系统中生产了大量的食物。我们对生产力来源的了解，如优化水资源管理和虫害管理，以获得更大的收成，显然具有重要意义。 此外，这种系统的形式模型规范的进步，更紧密地联系到当地和地区的具体情况，同时保留其一般化的形式性质，将扩大我们在这一领域理解人类行为的一般能力。

This award to the University of Michigan supports the research in Bali, Indonesia, of a cultural anthropologist studying the formal properties of wet-rice agricultural irrigation systems. The main focus is to understand how stable patterns of cooperation persist in the management of irrigation systems, given inescapable asymmetries in access to resources and incentives for cooperation. The research will develop and test a model that differs from previous models by incorporating a more realistic information about the regional ecosystem, and by expanding the social universe to include N players in an iterated game. The resulting model should predict changes in ecological processes (irrigation flows, pest diffusion, etc. ) and the payoffs for various strategies of cooperation or `defection`. These factors in combination can predict the patterns of cooperation in response to changes in the environment, such as increases in pests due to adoption of `Green revolution` agriculture (the causality to be modeled is thus complex with human decisions changing environmental variables which then impact on later decisions). The PI and his students will develop and test the model with measures of agricultural and ecological variables recorded through fieldwork over three summers. The project combines research and teaching in an innovative way since the students will be actively involved in field work and model specification. This research is important because this form of agriculture produces a significant amount of food in similar ecosystems in the world at large. Increases in our understanding of the sources of productivity, such as optimal water management and the management of pests to produce larger harvests is of obvious importance. In addition the advances in specification of formal models of such systems, that are more tightly tied to local and regional specifics while retaining their generalizing formal nature, will expand our general capacity to understand human behavior in this realm.