Integrative Modeling of Environmental Change in Agroecosystem

这个奖项授予了密歇根大学，以支持一位文化人类学家在印度尼西亚巴厘岛研究水稻农业灌溉系统的形式特性。主要重点是了解在获得资源和合作动机不可避免地不对称的情况下，稳定的合作模式如何在灌溉系统的管理中持续存在。该研究将开发和测试一个不同于之前模型的模型，该模型将纳入更多关于区域生态系统的现实信息，并通过扩展社交范围，在迭代游戏中包含N个玩家。由此产生的模型应该预测生态过程（灌溉流量、有害生物扩散等）的变化以及各种合作或“背叛”策略的回报。这些因素结合在一起可以预测应对环境变化的合作模式，例如由于采用“绿色革命”农业而增加的害虫（因此要建模的因果关系很复杂，因为人类决定改变环境变量，然后影响后来的决定）。PI和他的学生将开发和测试该模型，并通过三个夏天的实地考察记录农业和生态变量。该项目以一种创新的方式将研究和教学结合起来，因为学生将积极参与实地工作和模型规范。这项研究很重要，因为这种形式的农业在世界上类似的生态系统中生产了大量的食物。提高我们对生产力来源的认识，例如最佳的水管理和虫害管理，以获得更大的收成，这显然具有重要意义。此外，这种系统的形式化模型规范的进步，更紧密地与局部和区域的细节联系在一起，同时保留其一般化的形式化性质，将扩大我们在这一领域理解人类行为的一般能力。

This award to the University of Michigan supports the research in Bali, Indonesia, of a cultural anthropologist studying the formal properties of wet-rice agricultural irrigation systems. The main focus is to understand how stable patterns of cooperation persist in the management of irrigation systems, given inescapable asymmetries in access to resources and incentives for cooperation. The research will develop and test a model that differs from previous models by incorporating a more realistic information about the regional ecosystem, and by expanding the social universe to include N players in an iterated game. The resulting model should predict changes in ecological processes (irrigation flows, pest diffusion, etc. ) and the payoffs for various strategies of cooperation or `defection`. These factors in combination can predict the patterns of cooperation in response to changes in the environment, such as increases in pests due to adoption of `Green revolution` agriculture (the causality to be modeled is thus complex with human decisions changing environmental variables which then impact on later decisions). The PI and his students will develop and test the model with measures of agricultural and ecological variables recorded through fieldwork over three summers. The project combines research and teaching in an innovative way since the students will be actively involved in field work and model specification. This research is important because this form of agriculture produces a significant amount of food in similar ecosystems in the world at large. Increases in our understanding of the sources of productivity, such as optimal water management and the management of pests to produce larger harvests is of obvious importance. In addition the advances in specification of formal models of such systems, that are more tightly tied to local and regional specifics while retaining their generalizing formal nature, will expand our general capacity to understand human behavior in this realm.