Integrative Modeling of Environmental Change in Agroecosystem

农业生态系统环境变化综合建模

• 批准号: 9514862
• 负责人: John Lansing
• 金额: $ 19.27万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-08-01 至 1999-09-15
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9514862&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integrative; Modeling; Environmental; Change; Agroecosystem

This award to the University of Michigan supports the research in Bali, Indonesia, of a cultural anthropologist studying the formal properties of wet-rice agricultural irrigation systems. The main focus is to understand how stable patterns of cooperation persist in the management of irrigation systems, given inescapable asymmetries in access to resources and incentives for cooperation. The research will develop and test a model that differs from previous models by incorporating a more realistic information about the regional ecosystem, and by expanding the social universe to include N players in an iterated game. The resulting model should predict changes in ecological processes (irrigation flows, pest diffusion, etc. ) and the payoffs for various strategies of cooperation or `defection`. These factors in combination can predict the patterns of cooperation in response to changes in the environment, such as increases in pests due to adoption of `Green revolution` agriculture (the causality to be modeled is thus complex with human decisions changing environmental variables which then impact on later decisions). The PI and his students will develop and test the model with measures of agricultural and ecological variables recorded through fieldwork over three summers. The project combines research and teaching in an innovative way since the students will be actively involved in field work and model specification. This research is important because this form of agriculture produces a significant amount of food in similar ecosystems in the world at large. Increases in our understanding of the sources of productivity, such as optimal water management and the management of pests to produce larger harvests is of obvious importance. In addition the advances in specification of formal models of such systems, that are more tightly tied to local and regional specifics while retaining their generalizing formal nature, will expand our general capacity to understand human behavior in this realm.

授予密歇根大学的该奖项支持一位文化人类学家在印度尼西亚巴厘岛进行的研究，该研究研究了湿稻农业灌溉系统的形式特性。主要重点是了解在资源获取和合作激励方面不可避免的不对称的情况下，稳定的合作模式如何在灌溉系统管理中持续存在。 该研究将开发和测试一个与以前模型不同的模型，通过纳入有关区域生态系统的更真实的信息，并扩展社交宇宙以将 N 个玩家纳入迭代游戏中。 由此产生的模型应该预测生态过程的变化（灌溉流量、害虫扩散等）以及各种合作或“背叛”策略的回报。 这些因素结合起来可以预测针对环境变化的合作模式，例如由于采用“绿色革命”农业而导致害虫增加（因此要建模的因果关系非常复杂，人类决策改变了环境变量，从而影响了以后的决策）。 首席研究员和他的学生将通过三个夏天的实地考察记录的农业和生态变量的测量来开发和测试该模型。 该项目以创新的方式将研究和教学结合起来，因为学生将积极参与实地工作和模型规范。 这项研究很重要，因为这种农业形式在全世界类似的生态系统中生产大量食物。增加我们对生产力来源的了解，例如优化水管理和害虫管理以增加收成显然很重要。 此外，此类系统的形式模型规范的进步，与当地和区域的具体情况更加紧密地联系在一起，同时保留其普遍的形式性质，将扩大我们理解该领域人类行为的一般能力。