Three Projects in Choice Theory: Random Choice, Interdependent Preferences and Changing Tastes

该计划包含三个有关选择理论的研究项目。所有这些项目都将与普林斯顿大学的法鲁克·古尔联合进行。通常，观察到的选择行为不会与单一的、确定性的选择标准（即，效用函数）。也就是说，决策者会在几乎相同的情况下做出不同的选择。这种行为最好用随机选择来模拟。题为“随机选择”的第一个项目处理以下问题：何时可以将随机选择解释为最大化随机选择的备选方案排序标准的结果。 因此，我们调查的后果，来自一个固定的，概率规则选择效用函数的行为。在效用函数被选择之后，代理人在可用选项中选择使其最大化的替代方案。这种解释行为的方法对于分析聚合数据、有限理性行为和信息不对称的情况非常重要。在我们的工作中，我们研究了风险前景的选择和随机选择的期望效用函数。第二个项目题为“改变口味的显示偏好理论”，研究动态不一致性。动态不一致性是指代理人倾向于从同一组选项中做出不同的选择，这取决于他们何时被要求选择。例如，一个人喜欢较大的较晚奖励而不是较小的较早奖励，随着较小的较早奖励的日期越来越近，他可能会改变他的偏好。许多决策问题要求智能体在不同的时刻做出选择。在这些问题中，关键是决策者如何形成对自己未来行为的预期。本研究采取的立场，代理人的信念，他的未来的行为，可以通过他目前的行为进行最好的分析，并试图通过选择实验来确定这些信念。也就是说，我们希望确定的方法来确定代理人的期望，他的未来行为，从实际的选择，在目前的时期。显示偏好方法的优点是偏好在选择问题上是--至少在原则上是--可观察的。项目的最后一部分建议开发和分析一个“相互依赖偏好模型”，并使用相互依赖偏好来定义移情、恶意、公平和互惠等概念。

This proposal contains three related research projects on choice theory. All these projects will be undertaken jointly with Faruk Gul of Princeton University.Often, observed choice behavior will not be consistent with a single, deterministic choice criterion (i.e., utility function). That is, the decision-maker will make different choices in virtually identical situations. Such behavior is best modeled as random choice. The first project entitled "Random Choice," addresses the following question: when can a random choice be interpreted as the consequence of maximizing a randomly chosen criterion for ranking the alternatives. Hence, we investigate the consequences of behavior that is derived from a fixed, probabilistic rule for selecting a utility function. After the utility function is selected, the agent chooses the alternative that maximizes it among the available options. This way of interpreting behavior is important for the analysis of aggregate data, boundedly rational behavior and situations with asymmetric information. In our work, we study choice over risk prospects and randomly selected expected utility functions.The second project entitled "The Revealed Preference Theory of Changing Tastes" studies dynamic inconsistency. Dynamic inconsistency refers to the tendency of agents to make different choices from the same set of alternatives depending on when they are asked to choose. For example, an individual who prefers a larger later reward to a smaller earlier reward may reverse his preference, as the date of the smaller earlier reward gets closer. Many decision problems require the agent to make choices at various moments in time. In such problems, the key is how the decision-maker forms expectations about his own future behavior. This research takes the position that the agent's beliefs regarding his future behavior can best be analyzed through his current behavior and seeks to identify these beliefs through choice experiments. That is, we wish to identify methods for determining the agent's expectations about his future behavior from actual choices made in the current period. The advantage of the revealed preference approach is that preferences over choice problems are - at least in principal - observable.The final part of the project proposes to develop and analyze a "model of interdependent preferences" and to use interdependent preferences to define notions such as empathy, spitefulness, fairness and reciprocity.