Three Projects in Choice Theory: Random Choice, Interdependent Preferences and Changing Tastes

该提案包含三个与选择理论相关的研究项目。所有这些项目都将与普林斯顿大学的Faruk Gul共同进行。通常情况下，观察到的选择行为不会与单一的确定性选择标准(即效用函数)保持一致。也就是说，决策者将在几乎相同的情况下做出不同的选择。这样的行为最好被建模为随机选择。第一个题为“随机选择”的项目解决了以下问题：什么时候可以将随机选择解释为最大化随机选择的标准来对备选方案进行排序的结果。因此，我们研究从选择效用函数的固定的概率规则派生的行为的后果。在选择效用函数后，代理在可用选项中选择使其最大化的备选方案。这种解释行为的方式对于分析聚合数据、有限理性行为和信息不对称的情况很重要。在我们的工作中，我们研究了风险前景的选择和随机选择的期望效用函数。第二个项目名为《口味变化的揭示偏好理论》，研究了动态不一致性。动态不一致性指的是代理根据被要求选择的时间从同一组备选方案中做出不同选择的趋势。例如，一个人更喜欢较大的较晚奖励而不是较小的较早奖励，随着较小较早奖励的日期越来越近，他可能会逆转自己的偏好。许多决策问题需要智能体在不同的时刻做出选择。在这样的问题中，关键是决策者如何形成对自己未来行为的预期。本研究认为，代理人对其未来行为的信念可以通过他目前的行为进行最好的分析，并试图通过选择实验来确定这些信念。也就是说，我们希望确定方法，根据当前时期做出的实际选择来确定代理人对其未来行为的预期。揭示偏好方法的优点是偏好相对于选择问题是可观察到的--至少在原则上是可以观察到的。项目的最后部分建议开发和分析“相互依赖的偏好模型”，并使用相互依赖的偏好来定义移情、恶意、公平和互惠等概念。

This proposal contains three related research projects on choice theory. All these projects will be undertaken jointly with Faruk Gul of Princeton University.Often, observed choice behavior will not be consistent with a single, deterministic choice criterion (i.e., utility function). That is, the decision-maker will make different choices in virtually identical situations. Such behavior is best modeled as random choice. The first project entitled "Random Choice," addresses the following question: when can a random choice be interpreted as the consequence of maximizing a randomly chosen criterion for ranking the alternatives. Hence, we investigate the consequences of behavior that is derived from a fixed, probabilistic rule for selecting a utility function. After the utility function is selected, the agent chooses the alternative that maximizes it among the available options. This way of interpreting behavior is important for the analysis of aggregate data, boundedly rational behavior and situations with asymmetric information. In our work, we study choice over risk prospects and randomly selected expected utility functions.The second project entitled "The Revealed Preference Theory of Changing Tastes" studies dynamic inconsistency. Dynamic inconsistency refers to the tendency of agents to make different choices from the same set of alternatives depending on when they are asked to choose. For example, an individual who prefers a larger later reward to a smaller earlier reward may reverse his preference, as the date of the smaller earlier reward gets closer. Many decision problems require the agent to make choices at various moments in time. In such problems, the key is how the decision-maker forms expectations about his own future behavior. This research takes the position that the agent's beliefs regarding his future behavior can best be analyzed through his current behavior and seeks to identify these beliefs through choice experiments. That is, we wish to identify methods for determining the agent's expectations about his future behavior from actual choices made in the current period. The advantage of the revealed preference approach is that preferences over choice problems are - at least in principal - observable.The final part of the project proposes to develop and analyze a "model of interdependent preferences" and to use interdependent preferences to define notions such as empathy, spitefulness, fairness and reciprocity.