DMUU: Individual and Group Decision Making Under Climate Uncertainty

哥伦比亚大学环境决策研究中心（CRED）将协调一系列关于人类适应不确定性和变化的决策过程的研究，特别是与气候有关的不确定性和气候变化。 该中心的使命是解决在多个尺度上做出的决定：由个人，小团体和面临气候相关问题的组织。 中心的研究将由哥伦比亚大学的学生和教师与社会和经济研究与政策研究所（ISERP）和地球研究所（EI）的各个单位进行，地球研究所是一个由自然和社会科学家和工程师组成的联盟，致力于提高我们对地球及其环境和气候的理解，以及六个合作机构的学生和教师（巴德学院、加州大学戴维斯分校、格鲁吉亚大学、迈阿密大学、匹兹堡大学和俄勒冈州大学）。 CRED研究将（a）将个人决策的建设性本质扩展到群体决策的背景下，（B）将社会动机更充分地整合到决策理论中，（c）在实验室和现场环境中研究气候变化和气候变化相关决策的个人和群体过程。 一套精心设计的四个实验室项目，四个历史和理论项目，以及世界各地的八个实地项目将提供跨学科和互补的见解五个实质性目标：（1）理解心理表征和框架的性质和影响，在个人和群体的气候决策设置;（2）理解情感的、经验的信息与分析的、统计的信息在决策中的作用;（3）理解个人和群体目标、群体组成和群体过程在气候决策中的影响;（4）改进概率气候信息的表达形式和提供;（5）发展微观经济理论，将个人和群体决策过程的知识结合起来，发展宏观经济理论，将气候模型及其影响结合起来。 五个实地项目研究了季节性气候预测在个人、团体和机构决策过程中的应用。 三个实地项目涉及长期气候变化，并审查直接个人经验与统计信息在发现和应对气候变化方面的作用。CRED的研究贡献只是四个贡献领域中的第一个。 研究结果将直接用于教育干预措施、决策工具和机构战略的设计和测试，帮助人们、组织和政府更好地了解与气候变化和变异性相关的风险和可能的好处，以及他们的应对方案。 在教育和培训方面，该中心将与哥伦比亚地球研究所、哥伦比亚师范学院、纽约当地的学院和高中以及哥伦比亚艺术和科学研究生院少数民族事务办公室主持的若干教育方案合作。 该中心的课程和决策工具开发将利用哥伦比亚新媒体教学中心和国际地球科学信息网络中心（CIEIN）的专业知识。 国际气候预测研究所庞大而密集的联系网络将促进这些产品的传播。 此外，该中心还将与天气频道合作，制作关于气候变化和气候变异性的教育节目，以听取观众的反馈意见。 该奖项是作为2003财政年度人类和社会动力学优先领域不确定性决策特别竞赛的一部分获得支持的。

The Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) at Columbia University will coordinate a series of studies of decision processes underlying human adaptation to uncertainty and change-in particular climate-related uncertainty and climate change. The Center's mission is to address decisions made at multiple scales: by individuals, by small groups, and by organizations that face climate-related problems. Center research will be conducted by Columbia students and faculty affiliated with the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy (ISERP) and with various units of the Earth Institute (EI), a consortium of natural and social scientists and engineers committed to improving our understanding of the Earth, its environment and climate, as well as by students and faculty at six partner institutions (Bard College, University of California at Davis, University of Georgia, University of Miami, University of Pittsburgh, and University of Oregon). CRED research will (a) extend insights about the constructive nature of individual decision making to the context of group decisions, (b) integrate social motives more fully into theories of decision making, and (c) study individual and group processes in the laboratory and in field settings as climate-change and climate-variability related decisions occur. A carefully designed set of four laboratory projects, four historical and theoretical projects, and eight field projects around the world will provide interdisciplinary and complementary insights on five substantive objectives: (1) understanding the nature and impact of mental representations and framing in both individual and group climate decision settings; (2) understanding the role in decision making of affective, experiential information vs. analytic, statistical information; (3) understanding the effects of individual and group goals, group composition, and group processes in climate decisions; (4) improving the presentation format and delivery of probabilistic climate information; (5) developing microeconomic theories that incorporate knowledge gained about individual and group decision processes making and macroeconomic theories that integrate climate models and their impacts. Five field projects examine the use of seasonal climate forecasts in individual, group, and institutional decision processes. Three field projects deal with long-term climate change and examine the role of direct personal experience vs. statistical information in detecting and responding to climate change. CRED's research contributions are only the first of four areas of contribution. Research results will feed directly into the design and testing of educational interventions, decision tools, and institutional strategies that will help people, organizations, and governments to better understand the risks and possible benefits associated with climate change and variability and the response options they have. Regarding education and training, the Center will work with several educational programs under the aegis of the Earth Institute at Columbia, Columbia's Teachers College, local New York colleges and high schools, and the Office of Minority Affairs in the Columbia Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. The Center's curriculum and decision tools development will utilize the expertise of Columbia's Center for New Media Teaching and Learning, and the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The large and dense contact network of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) will facilitate dissemination of these products. In addition, the Center will work with the Weather Channel to produce educational segments on climate change and climate variability that will allow for audience feedback. This award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).