DMUU: Individual and Group Decision Making Under Climate Uncertainty

哥伦比亚大学环境决策研究中心（CRED）将协调一系列关于人类适应不确定性和变化的决策过程的研究，特别是与气候有关的不确定性和气候变化。该中心的使命是解决多个层面的决策：个人、小团体和面临气候相关问题的组织。中心的研究将由哥伦比亚大学社会经济研究与政策研究所（ISERP）下属的学生和教师以及地球研究所（EI）的各个单位进行，EI是一个致力于提高我们对地球，环境和气候的理解的自然和社会科学家和工程师的联盟，以及六个合作机构的学生和教师(巴德学院，加州大学戴维斯分校，佐治亚大学，迈阿密大学、匹兹堡大学和俄勒冈大学)。CRED研究将(a)将对个人决策的建设性性质的见解扩展到群体决策的背景下，(b)将社会动机更充分地纳入决策理论，以及(c)在气候变化和气候变率相关决策发生时，在实验室和实地环境中研究个人和群体过程。一套精心设计的四个实验室项目，四个历史和理论项目，以及世界各地的八个实地项目将为五个实质性目标提供跨学科和互补的见解：(1)理解心理表征和框架在个人和群体气候决策环境中的性质和影响；(2)理解情感、经验信息与分析、统计信息在决策中的作用；(3)了解个人和群体目标、群体构成和群体过程在气候决策中的影响；(4)改进概率气候信息的呈现形式和传递方式；(5)发展微观经济理论，将个人和群体决策过程的知识纳入其中；发展宏观经济理论，将气候模型及其影响纳入其中。五个实地项目考察了季节性气候预报在个人、团体和机构决策过程中的应用。三个实地项目涉及长期气候变化，并考察个人直接经验与统计信息在探测和应对气候变化方面的作用。CRED的研究贡献只是四个贡献领域中的第一个。研究结果将直接用于教育干预措施、决策工具和制度战略的设计和测试，帮助人们、组织和政府更好地了解与气候变化和变异相关的风险和可能的收益，以及他们拥有的应对方案。在教育和培训方面，该中心将与哥伦比亚大学地球研究所、哥伦比亚大学师范学院、纽约当地大学和高中以及哥伦比亚大学艺术与科学研究生院少数民族事务办公室等几个教育项目合作。该中心的课程和决策工具开发将利用哥伦比亚大学新媒体教学与学习中心和国际地球科学信息网络中心（CIESIN）的专业知识。国际气候预测研究所（IRI）庞大而密集的联络网将促进这些产品的传播。此外，中心还将与天气频道合作，制作有关气候变化和气候变率的教育节目，以供观众反馈。该奖项是2003财政年度人类和社会动态优先领域不确定决策特别竞赛的一部分。

The Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) at Columbia University will coordinate a series of studies of decision processes underlying human adaptation to uncertainty and change-in particular climate-related uncertainty and climate change. The Center's mission is to address decisions made at multiple scales: by individuals, by small groups, and by organizations that face climate-related problems. Center research will be conducted by Columbia students and faculty affiliated with the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy (ISERP) and with various units of the Earth Institute (EI), a consortium of natural and social scientists and engineers committed to improving our understanding of the Earth, its environment and climate, as well as by students and faculty at six partner institutions (Bard College, University of California at Davis, University of Georgia, University of Miami, University of Pittsburgh, and University of Oregon). CRED research will (a) extend insights about the constructive nature of individual decision making to the context of group decisions, (b) integrate social motives more fully into theories of decision making, and (c) study individual and group processes in the laboratory and in field settings as climate-change and climate-variability related decisions occur. A carefully designed set of four laboratory projects, four historical and theoretical projects, and eight field projects around the world will provide interdisciplinary and complementary insights on five substantive objectives: (1) understanding the nature and impact of mental representations and framing in both individual and group climate decision settings; (2) understanding the role in decision making of affective, experiential information vs. analytic, statistical information; (3) understanding the effects of individual and group goals, group composition, and group processes in climate decisions; (4) improving the presentation format and delivery of probabilistic climate information; (5) developing microeconomic theories that incorporate knowledge gained about individual and group decision processes making and macroeconomic theories that integrate climate models and their impacts. Five field projects examine the use of seasonal climate forecasts in individual, group, and institutional decision processes. Three field projects deal with long-term climate change and examine the role of direct personal experience vs. statistical information in detecting and responding to climate change. CRED's research contributions are only the first of four areas of contribution. Research results will feed directly into the design and testing of educational interventions, decision tools, and institutional strategies that will help people, organizations, and governments to better understand the risks and possible benefits associated with climate change and variability and the response options they have. Regarding education and training, the Center will work with several educational programs under the aegis of the Earth Institute at Columbia, Columbia's Teachers College, local New York colleges and high schools, and the Office of Minority Affairs in the Columbia Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. The Center's curriculum and decision tools development will utilize the expertise of Columbia's Center for New Media Teaching and Learning, and the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The large and dense contact network of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) will facilitate dissemination of these products. In addition, the Center will work with the Weather Channel to produce educational segments on climate change and climate variability that will allow for audience feedback. This award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).