SGER: Diagnosing El Nino-induced Tropical Droughts in Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Change Projections

SGER:在季节性预报和气候变化预测中诊断厄尔尼诺引起的热带干旱

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    0739024
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2007-09-15 至 2008-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

This is a grant under a Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Program pilot project called DRICOMP, for the Drought in Coupled Models Project, which focuses on making initial explorations into the mechanisms of drought as they are represented in the output of global climate models and on attempting to assess the reliability of these models in simulating drought.El Nino brings widespread drought to the tropics, including Mexico and northern South America. Stronger or more frequent El Nino events in the future will exacerbate drought risk in these highly vulnerable areas. Even if the frequency and intensity of El Nino events do not increase in the 21st century, more generalized warming of the tropical Pacific may still produce a tropical teleconnection resembling that associated with present-day El Nino conditions. Whether or not operational seasonal forecasts can capture the conditions that cause tropical drought is an entirely open question. This study is an initial exploration of the patterns, spatial extent, and severity of El Nino induced tropical droughts during a control period in the 20th century in seasonal forecasts, which have updated realistic initial conditions but fixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), and in climate change projections, which have realistic GHG evolution but no observational updates. The projected changes in the strength of the identified patterns of tropical drought will then be examined for the 21st century runs. This research will attempt to address the following questions:. How well do coupled models simulate the pattern and intensity of tropical droughts associated with El Nino during the 20th century?. What are the primary differences of El Nino variability and change between seasonal prediction models and climate change models in the 20th century?. To what extent do patterns of interannual precipitation variability project on 21st century precipitation trends, and what is the spatial signature of the remaining trends?Broader impacts of this project are in assessing the credibility of global climate model projections of changes in the frequency and severity of tropical droughts. It may also provide a basis for "recalibrating" the output of global climate models, so as to improve their reliability in projecting changes in tropical rainfall. The project will support the visit of Caio A. S. Coelho, a scientist at the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC), an institute of the Brazilian Meteorological Service, to the United States to collaborate with the principal investigator. This will contribute to an ongoing collaboration between CPTEC and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University.
这是气候变异性和可预测性(CLIVAR)计划试点项目DRICOMP下的一项拨款,用于耦合模式干旱项目,该项目专注于对干旱机制进行初步探索,因为它们代表了全球气候模式的输出,并试图评估这些模型在模拟干旱方面的可靠性。厄尔尼诺现象给热带地区带来了广泛的干旱,包括墨西哥和南美洲北部。未来更强或更频繁的厄尔尼诺现象将加剧这些高度脆弱地区的干旱风险。即使厄尔尼诺事件的频率和强度在21世纪不会增加,热带太平洋更加普遍的变暖仍可能产生类似于今天厄尔尼诺条件的热带遥相关。业务季节性预报能否捕捉到导致热带干旱的条件,这是一个完全悬而未决的问题。这项研究是对厄尔尼诺引起的热带干旱的模式、空间范围和严重程度的初步探索,在20世纪的一个控制期内,季节预报更新了现实的初始条件但固定了温室气体(GHGs),气候变化预测更新了现实的温室气体演变,但没有观测更新。然后,将对21世纪热带干旱模式的强度预测变化进行审查。这项研究将试图解决以下问题:耦合模型在模拟20世纪与厄尔尼诺相关的热带干旱的模式和强度方面有多好?在20世纪,季节预测模型和气候变化模型在厄尔尼诺变化和变化方面的主要区别是什么?年际降水变化模式在多大程度上影响21世纪的降水趋势,其余趋势的空间特征是什么?该项目的更广泛影响是评估热带干旱频率和严重程度变化的全球气候模型预测的可信度。它还可能为“重新校准”全球气候模型的输出提供基础,从而提高它们预测热带降雨变化的可靠性。该项目将支持巴西气象局气候研究中心(CPTEC)的科学家Caio A.S.Coelho访问美国,与首席调查员合作。这将有助于CPTEC与哥伦比亚大学国际气候与社会研究所(IRI)之间的持续合作。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}

Lisa Goddard其他文献

Correction to: MJO teleconnections to crop growing seasons
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s00382-020-05176-8
  • 发表时间:
    2020-02-26
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.700
  • 作者:
    Weston Anderson;Ángel G. Muñoz;Lisa Goddard;Walter Baethgen;Xandre Chourio
  • 通讯作者:
    Xandre Chourio
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation Affects Maize Yields Throughout the Tropics and Subtropics
马登-朱利安振荡影响整个热带和亚热带地区的玉米产量
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2020
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.2
  • 作者:
    Weston Anderson;E. Han;W. Baethgen;Lisa Goddard;Ángel G. Muñoz;Andrew W. Robertson
  • 通讯作者:
    Andrew W. Robertson
A Verification Framework for Interannual-to-Decadal Prediction Experiments
年际至十年间预测实验的验证框架
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2011
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Lisa Goddard;Paula Gonzalez;Simon Mason;Arthur Greene
  • 通讯作者:
    Arthur Greene
Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
次季节到季节预测的应用和实用性进展
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Christopher J. White;D. Domeisen;Nachiketa Acharya;E. Adefisan;Michael L. Anderson;Stella Aura;A. Balogun;Douglas Bertram;Sonia Bluhm;D. Brayshaw;J. Browell;D. Büeler;A. Charlton;X. Chourio;Isadora Christel;Caio A. S. Coelho;M. DeFlorio;L. D. Monache;F. D. Giuseppe;Ana María García;Peter B. Gibson;Lisa Goddard;Carmen González Romero;Richard J. Graham;Robert M. Graham;C. Grams;A. Halford;W. T. K. Huang;Kjeld Jensen;M. Kilavi;K. Lawal;Robert W. Lee;David MacLeod;A. Manrique;Eduardo S. P. R. Martins;Carolyn J. Maxwell;W. Merryfield;Ángel G. Muñoz;E. Olaniyan;George Otieno;J. Oyedepo;L. Palma;I. Pechlivanidis;Diego Pons;F. M. Ralph;Dirceu S. Reis;T. Remenyi;J. Risbey;Donald J. C. Robertson;A. W. Robertson;Stefan Smith;A. Soret;Ting Sun;Martin C. Todd;C. Tozer;Francisco C. Vasconcelos;Ilaria Vigo;D. Waliser;F. Wetterhall;Robert G. Wilson;Bertram White;Chourio;González Goddard;W. RomeroA.;Robertson —International;Wilson —Hydro Tasmania;Tasmania Hobart;Australia;Merryfield —Canadian
  • 通讯作者:
    Merryfield —Canadian
Importance In The Powerstroke Of Interaction Between The Relay Helix And Helix HQ Of Myosin
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.bpj.2008.12.2547
  • 发表时间:
    2009-02-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Conor Doss;Lisa Goddard;Annica Stull-Lane;Kathryn Chenault;Katherine Erickson;Don Moerman;Taylor Allen
  • 通讯作者:
    Taylor Allen

Lisa Goddard的其他文献

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

{{ truncateString('Lisa Goddard', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research:Integration of Decadal Climate Predictions, Ecological and Human Decision-Making Models to Support Climate-Resilient Agriculture in the Argentine Pampas
合作研究:十年气候预测、生态和人类决策模型的整合,支持阿根廷潘帕斯草原的气候适应型农业
  • 批准号:
    1049120
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Multi-scale climate information for agricultural planning in southeastern South America for coming decades
南美洲东南部未来几十年农业规划的多尺度气候信息
  • 批准号:
    1049066
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
SGER: Performance-based Probabilistic Multi-Model Climate Change Scenarios
SGER:基于性能的概率多模型气候变化情景
  • 批准号:
    0429299
  • 财政年份:
    2004
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

相似海外基金

EMBRACE-AGS-Growth: Diagnosing Kinematic Processes Responsible for Precipitation Distributions in Tropical Cyclones
EMBRACE-AGS-Growth:诊断热带气旋降水分布的运动过程
  • 批准号:
    2409475
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Development of an RNA-based test for diagnosing and monitoring bone and soft tissue cancers
开发基于 RNA 的测试来诊断和监测骨癌和软组织癌
  • 批准号:
    480287
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Operating Grants
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER: Diagnosing controls of pollution hot spots and hot moments and their impact on catchment water quality
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER:诊断污染热点和热点时刻的控制及其对流域水质的影响
  • 批准号:
    NE/X018830/1
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER: Diagnosing controls of pollution hot spots and hot moments and their impact on catchment water quality
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER:诊断污染热点和热点时刻的控制及其对流域水质的影响
  • 批准号:
    NE/X018857/1
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER: Diagnosing controls of pollution hot spots and hot moments and their impact on catchment water quality
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER:诊断污染热点和热点时刻的控制及其对流域水质的影响
  • 批准号:
    2331932
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Detecting, diagnosing and disrupting schistosomiasis.
检测、诊断和消灭血吸虫病。
  • 批准号:
    2885490
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Studentship
Stratification of Patients using advanced Integrative modelling of Data Routinely acquired for diagnosing Rheumatic complaints
使用常规获取的用于诊断风湿病症状的先进数据综合模型对患者进行分层
  • 批准号:
    10066059
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    EU-Funded
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER: Diagnosing controls of pollution hot spots and hot moments and their impact on catchment water quality
NERC-NSFGEO SMARTWATER:诊断污染热点和热点时刻的控制及其对流域水质的影响
  • 批准号:
    NE/X018628/1
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Diagnosing and preventing HIV infection in adolescents and young adults in the US: clinical impact and cost-effectiveness
诊断和预防美国青少年和年轻人的艾滋病毒感染:临床影响和成本效益
  • 批准号:
    10772663
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
Clinical Decision Support Software for diagnosing and managing eye conditions (Glaucoma) from routine Retinal Fundus Images
用于通过常规视网膜眼底图像诊断和管理眼部疾病(青光眼)的临床决策支持软件
  • 批准号:
    10055213
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.99万
  • 项目类别:
    Collaborative R&D
{{ showInfoDetail.title }}

作者:{{ showInfoDetail.author }}

知道了