SGER: Performance-based Probabilistic Multi-Model Climate Change Scenarios
SGER:基于性能的概率多模型气候变化情景
基本信息
- 批准号:0429299
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 2.5万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2004
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2004-09-01 至 2005-02-28
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
This research is addressing the questions: How is anthropogenic forcing likely to affect regional climate? With what certainty? To what degree? The work consists of two main parts: (1) Verification of the performance of 20th Century temporal characteristics, such as the trends in multi-decadal means and the interannual variability about those means, from the Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM)s used for 21st Century climate change predictions; and, (2) Construction of probabilistic multi-model scenarios for 21st Century climate and its variability, using the results from (1) as an objective basis for assigning weights to the model predictions. For the verification analysis, a probabilistic skill metric will be applied to the AOGCM ensembles relative to an ensemble of synthetic observations, each of which possesses the same temporal characteristics of the observed climate over the 20th Century. Similarly, sub-sets of the observations will be used to construct the probability distributions of the expected skill score. For regions where the probability distributions of the Monte Carlo skill scores for the AOGCMs and observations are significantly similar, the model performance for the 20th Century will be deemed credible. For the probabilistic multimodel change scenarios, a Bayesian approach will be applied using the prior assumption that 21st Century variability may be represented by the observed 20th Century variability. The analyses will be performed spatially from the grid scale to the regional scale for seasonal (i.e. 3-month mean) near-surface air temperature and precipitation. The results from this research are intended for inclusion in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). The methods employed in this research, applying techniques of multi-model ensembling that are based on model performance, have not yet been applied in the context of climate change predictions and can pilot further research for future IPCC reports. The findings of this research also can be used to set the longer-range context for seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and predictions. The suggestion here is that proper synthesis of seasonal forecasts, and longer-term assessments, taking into account the uncertainties of each, provides the best opportunity to minimize losses, take advantage of opportunity, and work toward sustainable practices. Broader impacts include the training of a post-doc and the societal benefits to be realized from credible estimates of the performance of climate prediction models.
这项研究正在解决的问题:如何是人为强迫可能会影响区域气候?有什么把握?到什么程度? 主要工作包括两个方面:(1)检验用于21世纪气候变化预测的大气-海洋全球环流模式(AOGCM)的20世纪时间特征,如年代际平均的变化趋势及其年际变率;(2)利用(1)的结果作为给模式预测分配权重的客观基础,建立21世纪世纪气候及其变率的概率多模式情景。 为了进行验证分析,将对AOGCM集合相对于合成观测集合的概率技能度量进行应用,其中每个集合具有20世纪观测气候的相同时间特征。 类似地,观察结果的子集将用于构建预期技能分数的概率分布。 对于AOGCM和观测值的Monte Carlo技能分数的概率分布显著相似的区域,20世纪世纪的模型性能将被视为可信。对于概率性多模型变化情景,将使用先验假设(即21世纪的变异性可由观察到的20世纪变异性表示)应用贝叶斯方法。 将从网格尺度到区域尺度对季节性(即3个月平均)近地面气温和降水进行空间分析。 这项研究的结果打算列入政府间气候变化专门委员会(气专委)的第四次评估报告。 本研究中采用的方法,应用基于模型性能的多模型集成技术,尚未应用于气候变化预测,可以为未来的IPCC报告进行进一步的研究。 这项研究的结果还可用于为季节性到年际气候变率和预测设定更长期的背景。 这里的建议是,适当综合季节性预测和长期评估,考虑到每种预测和评估的不确定性,为最大限度地减少损失、利用机会并努力实现可持续实践提供了最佳机会。更广泛的影响包括博士后的培训以及对气候预测模型性能的可靠估计所带来的社会效益。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Lisa Goddard其他文献
Correction to: MJO teleconnections to crop growing seasons
- DOI:
10.1007/s00382-020-05176-8 - 发表时间:
2020-02-26 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.700
- 作者:
Weston Anderson;Ángel G. Muñoz;Lisa Goddard;Walter Baethgen;Xandre Chourio - 通讯作者:
Xandre Chourio
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation Affects Maize Yields Throughout the Tropics and Subtropics
马登-朱利安振荡影响整个热带和亚热带地区的玉米产量
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2020 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:
Weston Anderson;E. Han;W. Baethgen;Lisa Goddard;Ángel G. Muñoz;Andrew W. Robertson - 通讯作者:
Andrew W. Robertson
A Verification Framework for Interannual-to-Decadal Prediction Experiments
年际至十年间预测实验的验证框架
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2011 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Lisa Goddard;Paula Gonzalez;Simon Mason;Arthur Greene - 通讯作者:
Arthur Greene
Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
次季节到季节预测的应用和实用性进展
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2021 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Christopher J. White;D. Domeisen;Nachiketa Acharya;E. Adefisan;Michael L. Anderson;Stella Aura;A. Balogun;Douglas Bertram;Sonia Bluhm;D. Brayshaw;J. Browell;D. Büeler;A. Charlton;X. Chourio;Isadora Christel;Caio A. S. Coelho;M. DeFlorio;L. D. Monache;F. D. Giuseppe;Ana María García;Peter B. Gibson;Lisa Goddard;Carmen González Romero;Richard J. Graham;Robert M. Graham;C. Grams;A. Halford;W. T. K. Huang;Kjeld Jensen;M. Kilavi;K. Lawal;Robert W. Lee;David MacLeod;A. Manrique;Eduardo S. P. R. Martins;Carolyn J. Maxwell;W. Merryfield;Ángel G. Muñoz;E. Olaniyan;George Otieno;J. Oyedepo;L. Palma;I. Pechlivanidis;Diego Pons;F. M. Ralph;Dirceu S. Reis;T. Remenyi;J. Risbey;Donald J. C. Robertson;A. W. Robertson;Stefan Smith;A. Soret;Ting Sun;Martin C. Todd;C. Tozer;Francisco C. Vasconcelos;Ilaria Vigo;D. Waliser;F. Wetterhall;Robert G. Wilson;Bertram White;Chourio;González Goddard;W. RomeroA.;Robertson —International;Wilson —Hydro Tasmania;Tasmania Hobart;Australia;Merryfield —Canadian - 通讯作者:
Merryfield —Canadian
Importance In The Powerstroke Of Interaction Between The Relay Helix And Helix HQ Of Myosin
- DOI:
10.1016/j.bpj.2008.12.2547 - 发表时间:
2009-02-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Conor Doss;Lisa Goddard;Annica Stull-Lane;Kathryn Chenault;Katherine Erickson;Don Moerman;Taylor Allen - 通讯作者:
Taylor Allen
Lisa Goddard的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Lisa Goddard', 18)}}的其他基金
Collaborative Research:Integration of Decadal Climate Predictions, Ecological and Human Decision-Making Models to Support Climate-Resilient Agriculture in the Argentine Pampas
合作研究:十年气候预测、生态和人类决策模型的整合,支持阿根廷潘帕斯草原的气候适应型农业
- 批准号:
1049120 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 2.5万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Multi-scale climate information for agricultural planning in southeastern South America for coming decades
南美洲东南部未来几十年农业规划的多尺度气候信息
- 批准号:
1049066 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 2.5万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
SGER: Diagnosing El Nino-induced Tropical Droughts in Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Change Projections
SGER:在季节性预报和气候变化预测中诊断厄尔尼诺引起的热带干旱
- 批准号:
0739024 - 财政年份:2007
- 资助金额:
$ 2.5万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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