Multi-scale climate information for agricultural planning in southeastern South America for coming decades

主要研究人员（PI）将调查十年尺度气候信息的发展及其在南美洲东南部农业部门应用中的使用，那里种植了世界上近一半的大豆。该区域具有显著的年际变率、年代际变率和长期趋势。 因此，它构成了一个适当的背景，以了解过去的气候变化，使农业扩张，并将这种新的知识应用于决策系统，为进一步发展和减少脆弱性提供信息。该项目将结合一系列模式模拟和预测以及历史气候观测。PI将使用统计和动力学技术分析过去，这些技术的目标是未来天气和气候在十年时间尺度上变化的特征。农业环境将决定土壤和作物模型所需气候信息的空间和时间尺度，以及农业决策系统对不同时间尺度气候不确定性的敏感性。这一项目的广泛影响很大：预计方法框架将转移到其他区域。

The Principal Investigators (PIs) will investigate the development of decadal-scale climate information and its use in agricultural sector applications for southeastern South America, where almost half of the world's soybeans are grown. This region exhibits notable interannual variability, decadal variability and long-term trends. It thus constitutes a suitable setting to understand past climate changes that enabled agricultural expansion and apply this new knowledge to decision systems that inform further development and reduce vulnerability. The project will incorporate a range of model simulations and predictions together with historical climate observations. The PIs will analyze the past using statistical and dynamical techniques that target the characteristics of future weather and climate varying on decadal timescales. The agricultural context will dictate the spatial and temporal scale of climate information required for use in soil and crop models, as well as the sensitivity of agricultural decision systems to uncertainty in the climate at different timescales. The broader impacts of this project are high: it is anticipated that the methodological framework will be transferable to other regions.