Prevalence and Preparedness for Conjoint Natural and Technological Disasters

越来越多的证据表明，自然灾害可以引发技术灾害，这些联合事件（“na-techs”）可以对没有准备应对此类灾害的地区构成巨大风险。最近的例子包括1999年8月土耳其地震后图普拉斯炼油厂发生灾难性的炼油火灾、2001年印度布杰地震造成的有害物质泄漏以及2002年欧洲洪水对工业设施造成的破坏。 认识到有必要了解美国natechs带来的风险，该项目将生成和分析美国过去22年来的联合灾害记录。使用各种数据源，包括紧急情况管理人员的邮件调查，EPA和FEMA数据库，以及电话和现场访谈，我们将确定22年来natechs灾难的发生率，引发它们的自然灾害类型，危险材料船只/设备的故障模式，易受这些释放影响的行业，以及释放的现场和现场外后果。从这些数据中，我们将构建一个技术灾难发生的条件概率，给定一个自然灾害发生。对于美国县的一个选定的子集，我们将展示如何使用这些条件概率来构建基于GIS的概率地图，显示在特定县发生的na-techs的总概率。此外，还将对美国的个别国家技术中心进行个案研究，并对研究结果进行综合，以便就危险材料易因自然灾害而释放的脆弱性、防止或尽量减少这种释放的影响所需的缓解措施以及在发生释放时的适当应对措施得出一般性结论。这些个案研究也将作为有用的数据，供专家判断自然灾害造成灾难性技术灾害的可能性。

There is growing evidence that technological disasters can be triggered by natural disasters, and that these conjoint events ("na-techs") can pose tremendous risks to regions which are unprepared for such disasters. Recent examples include the catastrophic refinery fires at the Tupras oil refinery following the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey, the releases of hazardous materials which resulted from the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in India, and the damage inflicted on industrial facilities during the European floods of 2002. Recognizing the need to understand the risk posed by na-techs in the United States, this project will generate and analyze the record of conjoint disasters over the last twenty-two years in the United States. Using a variety of data sources, including mail surveys of emergency managers, EPA and FEMA databases, and telephone and on-site interviews, we will determine the incidence of na-techs disasters over the twenty-two years, the types of natural hazards which triggered them, the failure modes of the hazardous materials vessels/equipment, the industries which have been vulnerable to these releases, and the on and off-site consequences of the releases. From these data, we will construct conditional probabilities of a technological disaster occurring, given that a natural hazard occurs. For a selected subset of US counties, we will show how these conditional probabilities can be used to construct probabilistic GIS-based maps showing the total probability of na-techs occurring in specific counties. In addition, case studies of individual na-techs in the United States will be developed and the results synthesized so that general conclusions can be drawn regarding vulnerability of hazardous materials to release as a result of natural disasters, mitigation measures needed to prevent or minimize the impact of such releases, and appropriate response measures in case of a release. These case studies will also be useful as data from which expert judgment can made regarding the potential for catastrophic technological disasters as a result of natural hazards.