Prevalence and Preparedness for Conjoint Natural and Technological Disasters

自然和技术联合灾害的发生率和防备

• 批准号: 0750166
• 负责人: laura Steinberg
• 金额: $ 13.01万
• 依托单位: Southern Methodist University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-05-01 至 2009-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0750166&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Prevalence; Preparedness; Conjoint; Natural; Technological

There is growing evidence that technological disasters can be triggered by natural disasters, and that these conjoint events ("na-techs") can pose tremendous risks to regions which are unprepared for such disasters. Recent examples include the catastrophic refinery fires at the Tupras oil refinery following the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey, the releases of hazardous materials which resulted from the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in India, and the damage inflicted on industrial facilities during the European floods of 2002. Recognizing the need to understand the risk posed by na-techs in the United States, this project will generate and analyze the record of conjoint disasters over the last twenty-two years in the United States. Using a variety of data sources, including mail surveys of emergency managers, EPA and FEMA databases, and telephone and on-site interviews, we will determine the incidence of na-techs disasters over the twenty-two years, the types of natural hazards which triggered them, the failure modes of the hazardous materials vessels/equipment, the industries which have been vulnerable to these releases, and the on and off-site consequences of the releases. From these data, we will construct conditional probabilities of a technological disaster occurring, given that a natural hazard occurs. For a selected subset of US counties, we will show how these conditional probabilities can be used to construct probabilistic GIS-based maps showing the total probability of na-techs occurring in specific counties. In addition, case studies of individual na-techs in the United States will be developed and the results synthesized so that general conclusions can be drawn regarding vulnerability of hazardous materials to release as a result of natural disasters, mitigation measures needed to prevent or minimize the impact of such releases, and appropriate response measures in case of a release. These case studies will also be useful as data from which expert judgment can made regarding the potential for catastrophic technological disasters as a result of natural hazards.

越来越多的证据表明，自然灾害可能引发技术灾难，而这些同时发生的事件(“自然灾难”)可能会给没有做好应对此类灾难准备的地区带来巨大风险。最近的例子包括1999年8月土耳其地震后图普拉斯炼油厂发生的灾难性火灾、2001年印度布吉地震造成的危险物质泄漏以及2002年欧洲洪水对工业设施造成的破坏。认识到有必要了解美国国家技术人员构成的风险，该项目将生成并分析过去22年来美国发生的联合灾害记录。利用各种数据来源，包括对应急管理人员的邮件调查、EPA和FEMA数据库以及电话和现场采访，我们将确定22年来国家技术灾难的发生率、引发这些灾难的自然灾害类型、危险材料船只/设备的故障模式、易受这些泄漏影响的行业以及泄漏的现场和非现场后果。根据这些数据，我们将在假设发生自然灾害的情况下构建发生技术灾难的条件概率。对于选定的美国县的子集，我们将展示如何使用这些条件概率来构建基于地理信息系统的概率地图，以显示特定县发生NA技术的总概率。此外，还将开发美国个别国家技术的案例研究，并对结果进行综合，以便得出关于自然灾害导致危险材料泄漏的脆弱性、防止或最大限度减少此类泄漏影响所需的缓解措施以及在泄漏情况下的适当应对措施的一般性结论。这些案例研究也将是有用的数据，专家可以根据这些数据对自然灾害造成灾难性技术灾难的可能性作出判断。